Pension Gap Prediction And Sensitivity Analysis Of Hebei Province Based On GM(1,1) Model

As the main source of the senior citizens’ income, pension plays a key role in social old-age caring, but the more and more serious tendency of the aging population makes a huge impact on the pension balance. Under which background, this thesis, focusing on the pension balance in Hebei Province, makes corresponding estimate and analysis on the data acquired by referring to China Statistical Yearbook and Hebei Economic Yearbook. First of all, with the help of GM(1, 1) grey forecasting model and gap measurement model of pension balance, the author makes a predication about the current balance of the pension in Hebei Province. Under the premise of unchanged current policies, there will be a gap in the current pension balance around 2018 and the gap will be bigger and bigger. Secondly, the factors that affect the pension gap are explained in three parts: historical reasons, external environment and changeable internal variables, by which the forecasting model of the gap of the pension balance is created and the analysis of the sensitivity of the corresponding factors is made. Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of the sensitivity together show a fact that the pension replacement rate, the average wage growth rate, the number of insured and retired persons result in pension gap problem in the future. Finally, under the background of the more and more serious problem of the aging population, with the aim of avoiding the financial risk of the pension gap in the future, the author puts up with some suggestions to narrow down the pension gap, which provides decision-making basis for the resolution of the problem of pension balance under the tendency of the aging population in Hebei Province.