| The non-listed hi-tech enterprises in the growth stage are more likely to be purchased at a premium price thanks to good development prospects and large growth potentials, rendering goodwill a larger proportion of enterprise value. As everything has two sides, mergers and acquisitions can quickly upgrade the performance of a company, but a blind merger will also leave serious sequelae:the risk of impairment of goodwill. The impairment of goodwill is a threat to net profit. Therefore, accurate assessing of the value of goodwill, preventing enterprise adjusting profit, for both enterprises and investors are increasingly important.However, compared with other assets, goodwill has more complicated value structure and value composition, which make it more difficult to exercise a precise and reasonable evaluation. At present, goodwill impairment evaluation mainly uses. cut difference method and the method of excess earnings, which is a part of future earnings discount method. Due to the market conditions, usually, the cut difference method is used to assess goodwill impairment in our country. In cut difference method, to evaluate the goodwill impairment, we find the value of equity calculated by future earnings discount method, and minus the total single asset by marketing method and cost method. In the cut difference method, for the non-listed hi-tech enterprises in the growth stage which are non-completely controlled, the main difficulty to evaluate the goodwill impairment is to assess the overall equity value. The main reasons are as follows:(1) Because the enterprises are just in the growth stage, there is not enough stable historical data to refer to. Thus, mature econometric forecasting model cannot be used to forecast the future earnings of these enterprises. (2) The product life cycle of these enterprises is short, causing the enterprises’earning, input cost and operating risk to vary during different stages of the product life cycle. In order to improve the accuracy of the evaluation of equity of these enterprises, this paper based on product life cycle perspective, will predict the future cash flows and discount rate. Moreover, this paper will combine revenue, investment and risk with the life cycle of product distribution characteristics to predict the phase.Therefore, the degree thesis chooses a representative non-listed high-tech enterprise in the growth stage,——M company in the mobile online game industry as a case study. In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting results, the thesis uses the characteristics of M company products in each stage of the life cycle to forecast its cash flows and discount rate, thus providing a useful reference for goodwill impairment assessment of the hi-tech enterprise in the growth stage in the future. |
