Research On The Measurement And Application Of The Volatility In High-tech Enterprise Valuation Based On MONTE CARLO Method

After 38 years of reform and opening up,China's GDP has already been ranked the second place in the world.With the "Thirteen Five" project has been implemented,Socialist market economy will achieve leaps and bounds.According to the instructions in the 18 th session of the National People's Congress report,to improve the strategic support of social productivity and comprehensive national strength is a technology innovation.The scientific and technological innovations are the core of national development.And the rapid development of high-tech enterprise is the external performance of scientific and technological innovation.Reasonable assessment of enterprise value is the premise of enterprise stable development.High and new tech enterprises' value assessment is Paramount,High and new technology enterprise's main economic profits are intangible assets investment projects,but intangible assets and its investment projects in the financial statements of the enterprise can't fully reflects its value.Due to the intangible assets including invisibility and earnings uncertainty,makes the value assessment of investment projects of intangible assets and its extremely complex and difficult.Income approach,cost approach,market approach ignored the uncertainty of intangible assets investment projects,which cannot be reasonable for high and new tech enterprises' value assessment,enterprise managers or make economic decisions for enterprise itself development,more can cause huge economic losses to investors.Real option method is relatively reasonable evaluation of high-tech enterprise value method,is involved in the process of evaluation of this method the calculation problem of volatility,volatility,as an important parameter in the method,is also the most difficult to determine the parameters of the tiny changes can lead to large changes in the enterprise value.So,using the scientific and reasonable calculation method of the volatility to reflect the high-tech enterprise overall value is particularly important.In view of this,this article focuses on the important parameters of high and new tech enterprises' value evaluation results volatility has carried on the thorough research.Based on the thorough analysis calculation method on the basis of the limitations of traditional volatility,attempts through Monte Carlo simulation principle,the volatility is calculated.The Monte Carlo method volatility is calculated by using MATLAB and other statistical software in a computer to overcome the traditional methods of subjective prediction,parameter improper selection problems caused by the defects,such as volatility measurement results can more reasonably reflect the value of the project assets.The MonteCarlo simulation method is the basic method of estimating volatility: first of all,should set up a related to the solution of calculation model,and the variables of the model set up a proper probability distribution to describe its characteristics.Second,set the number of simulation,simulation run continuously,until the result tends to be stable.Finally,by running the program can get the variance and standard deviation of the output variables,and the final result.At the same time,the method to calculate the volatility of the value and approximate return on assets,market spokesperson,generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity method to calculate methods,such as the value of volatility into real option evaluation model respectively,and carry on the enterprise value evaluation,the evaluation value comparison.Results show that the volatility is calculated by the Monte Carlo method,which is of high and new tech enterprises' value is closer to the actual value,showing that the method not only make up for the deficiency of the traditional methods,but also in terms of computational efficiency and precision are also shows a clear advantage.Of course,The Monte Carlo method also has some defects,hope that through this study can be for the volatility of the computing provides a new train of thought,and enrich the study of volatility.