The Real Options Method Is Applied Research In High-tech Agricultural Project Evaluation

China is a big agricultural country under developing. There for, the development of agriculture, the stability of rural area and the affluence of the farmer is of great importance to the prosperity, stability and development of the country. Agricultural High-tech is necessary to the development of this industry and is of vital importance to it's international competence. However, the current utilizing rate is only 30%~40%, far from 70%~80% in developed country. One of the main reasons is that the current evaluating method is not suitable to evaluate the Agricultural High-tech Project. This paper represents a new method by applying real option to the evaluation and come up with a more scientific evaluation which takes flexibility and growth value into consideration.This paper first introduces two traditional method for evaluating Agricultural High-tech Project and point out their short comings in application. Then summarize literatures relating real option into three parts. The first part mainly introduces some basic concepts and theories. The second part introduces the real option research status at home and abroad.The third part sum up and classify literatures of real option in application, based on which give this paper's research main idea.Then we analyze the feature of the real option in the Agricultural High-tech Project, we point out the possible types of real option, and test the feasibility of put real option into the evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Project. Based On the theoretical analysis we construct evaluation frame.Specific steps are as follows: The judgement of Agricultural High-tech Project;The recognition of the types of real option;The recognition of uncertain factors;The selection or construct of proper real option pricing model;The calculation of relating parameters;The calculation of the final value of the project. In the part of calculating relating parameters, we go deep into the method of Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate volatility.In the part of case study, we apply the frame, which is mentioned above, to evaluate a specific Agricultural High-tech Project. Recognize the expand option and growth option in it and calculate the project value including this two options. The result shows that the evaluation frame is both feasible and effective. Besides, we compare our result with the results of two traditional evaluation methods, and find out that the real option method has advantage in evaluating project with more uncertainty, which is just a shortcoming of the traditional ones. Finally we combine strong points of the three evaluating methods and construct a evaluating system of Agricultural High-tech Project.