| Copper is one of the major mineral resources with exhaustion, and its metal characteristics determine its important position in the process of industrialization. At present, China has become the world's largest copper consumer and producer, with the accelerated process of industrialization, the demand for copper will remain high. 2015 static copper reserves in China is only 30 million tons, the same year, China's refined copper consumption of up to more than 11 million tons, resources endowment security degree lower, China's proven copper reserves of less, low grade and comprehensive utilization rate low decision of Chinese copper resources are tight supply situation and external dependence will continue to go up, security issues of China's copper resources has become one of the scientific problems to be solved.By 2015, China's refined copper consumption of 11 million tons, self-produced copper is only 320 million tons, the foreign dependency of up to 70%, the supply of copper resources in China mainly rely on imports of refined copper. In addition, the supply structure of copper resources in China emphasizes in the copper mines, 2015 copper mine supply accounted for that year, refined copper consumption of about 66%, due to copper mining, smelting, and processing technology level is low, and production of corporate environmental consciousness is weak, resulting in copper resources waste and loss is bigger, also produced a large number of environmental problems. Obviously, the supply mode of Chinese copper resources and the proportion of the supply structure safety needs to be optimized and solved.In this paper, from the point of view of circular economy, from the perspective of closed-loop industrial chain and analysis Chinese copper resource "to be sustainable supply for structure and proportion optimization problem aimed at the excavation conforms to China's copper resources for structure safety ratio and optimization of the trend. The existing mineral resources for research are mostly based on the amount of mineral resources reserves static, ore grade and ore deposit types, exploration prospect, overseas purchase and investment of resources and compensation trade for theoretical and empirical analysis, the focus is on the study of natural resource endowment of copper resources for problems, too much attention to resource endowments and bearing capacity, the research perspective of short-term copper resources gap between supply and demand guarantee is a very good reference. But in the long run, how will the view of resource endowment extends to the recycling economic system, considering the copper resources sustainable utilization and circular utilization, using the concept of system will be associated with the natural system and the social and economic system, through the depth of mining city of mineral in the regeneration of copper resource potential, copper resource supply structure optimization for research still further perfect space. Based on this, this article in Chinese copper demand history review and future needs of the scientific prediction as the breakthrough point, analysis and pre judgment law of demand of China's copper resources and changes in demand in the future trend, and from the copper mine production, trade copper, recycled copper three aspect ratio change trend to study copper resources guarantee of proportion and structure optimization direction, and through for the structure proportion optimization of system to realize the sustainability of China's copper resources demand in the future supply structure optimization goal.In this paper, qualitative analysis and quantitative prediction of the research methods, focusing on the demand of copper resources, supply structure and the utilization potential of recycled copper(social stock) to carry out systematic research, the main cognitive as follows:(1) Using the scenario analysis, the least squares method and IPAT equation to predict the future demand of copper resources in China, the results show that China's demand for copper resources growth began to slow, is expected to reach 15 million tons in 2021 peak demand. The gap between supply and demand to solve still mainly rely on imports, but the regeneration amount of copper and accounted for the ratio will continue to increase, to circular economy drives the reclaimed copper industry rapid development has become the main direction of supply side reforms and the adjustment of industrial structure.(2) In 2013 the proportion of China's copper resources supply structure mines 40% copper(which produced 13%, import 27%), imports of refined copper accounted for 27% and the regeneration of copper accounted for the ratio was 33%(which produces and 17% and imports 16%). Is expected to 2021 China produces mine copper production only 200 million tons- 250 million tons, peak demand of copper resource security capacity is still very weak, imports of copper(copper ore, refined copper and copper regeneration) and self-produced recycled copper is still a main method to solve the problem of gap. And trade routes in the presence of such as transport path is not stable, geopolitical, trade monopoly, many uncontrollable factors, once disrupted trade, China's copper resources supply will be seriously affected, will lead to major issues of social and economic development and resources security.(3) China's self-produced recycled copper in the supply structure of the ratio is too low, difficult to lower the copper resources external dependence, far lower than the proportion of the United States(65%), Germany(74%) of self-produced recycled copper. Using dynamic material flow analysis(SFA) method and Weibull distribution method and a life cycle approach(LCA), and combined with Minitab software calculated from 1990 to 2013 China copper product scrap copper resources and the amount of social stock respectively, and 15 million tons and 65 million tons, recycled copper resources in the future development and utilization of great potential.Based on this, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions and countermeasures, including: To evaluate the utilization potential of recycled copper, learn from foreign experience of developed countries, the prediction of recycled copper scale recovery time, through the adjustment of industrial optimization and for the industry to use recycled copper scale; to strengthen the green mining based on mineral resources development in Western China, increase copper reserves; strengthen the supply side reforms, the elimination of backward production capacity; carry out resource diplomacy in the "The Belt and Road" policy under the guidance of the development of transnational mineral company; circular economy promoting recycled copper industry development and layout, clear the dual characteristics of two copper resources of the construction of ecological civilization, to promote the two copper resources the efficient recycling of material flow, to ensure the safe supply of China copper resources. |
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