Transnational Agricultural Products Supply Chain Risk Analysis And Coordination

Economic globalization and changes of the consumer market makes the study of transnational supply chain become a hot spot.In the transnational agricultural products supply chain system,there are multiple node enterprises distributed in different countries or areas,they will face a variety of risk sources and greater risks threats,but node enterprises which possess the "Economic man" attribute to pursuit profit maximization.As a result,to some extent they will have friction in risk sharing and income distribution.At present,the academic study of transnational agricultural products supply chain risk is still rare,literatures considering multiple risk sources at the same time and design coordination mechanism are also very few.The studies including transnational supply chain risk are mostly focused on aspects of using financial methods to hedge specific currency risk.Research considering the decision-making behavior of node enterprises and using contract mechanism to coordinate the risk is relatively less.So the study and analysis of transnational agricultural products supply chain risk factors,designing reasonable risk coordination mechanism to achieve maximum profit of the supply chain,is in urgent need to be solved.This paper studies uncertainty risk and coordination problem of the transnational agricultural products supply chain consisting of a supplier and a distributor.Specifically,this paper mainly do the following several jobs: 1)Firstly using the method of qualitative analysis and scenario analysis to build a set of analysis frame model of transnational agricultural products supply chain risk,dividing the international agricultural products supply chain risk factors according to certain standard,on the basis designing transnational agricultural products supply chain risk assessment model based on the fuzzy theory,and applying a numerical example to verify the effectiveness of the analysis framework model and the evaluation method of transnational agricultural products supply chain risk;2)Using mathematical model and sensitivity analysis method to study the risk coordination mechanism of multinational agricultural products supply chain.Considering supply risk and demand risk of transnational agricultural products supply chain,from two angles of centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making,constructing coordination model based on the wholesale price contract and option contract respectively,and using a numerical example to analyze and validate the model;3)Considering the exchange rate risk and the demand risk of the transnational agricultural products supply chain together,from two angles of centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making,respectively constructing coordination model based on the wholesale price contract and option contract,finally the models are analyzed and validated combining with an actual numerical example.Based on the above research,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1)The risk analysis framework and evaluation method based on the fuzzy theory of transnational agricultural products supply chain has certain practical value,can provide decision-making reference for transnational agricultural products supply chain risk assessment;2)Proved that expected profits of the transnational agricultural products supply chain is a concave function of two decision variables which are capital investment quantities of supplier and order quantities of distributor,there was a positive correlation relationship between agricultural materials input number of supplier and order quantities of distributor,wholesale price contract cannot coordinate the supply chain,the option contract mechanism is an effective coordination of transnational agricultural products supply chain risk;3)exchange rate volatility will affect the upstream enterprise through the downstream enterprises adjust order quantities,the expected currency value will affect the size of the order quantity of distributors,the increasing of option prices will lead to the decreasing of expectation profits of node companies of the transnational agricultural products supply chain,options prices cannot increase unlimited,there is a range.Overall,this paper did some research work about the transnational agricultural products supply chain risk analysis and coordination,hope that the research results can provide certain decision reference for transnational agricultural products supply chain risk coordination problems.