Analysis On The Reasons Of International Trade Commodity Structure In China's Economic Growth Rate

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has grown rapidly in thirty years.However,recently,China's economic growth decreased significantly due to the external and internal elements.The external factor,the world economic recession,leads to the economic slowdown.While the internal constraint,the adjustment to the industrial structure is the source of the economic slowdown.According to the general principles of international trade theory,the product structure and commodity structure of international trade are essentially in the same relationship as "preimage" and "mirror".Thus,it has important theoretical and practical significance to investigate the internal factors of the slowdown in China's economic growth from the perspective of international trade commodity structure.This paper classifies international trade based on BEC and SITC.It discusses direct and indirect effects on economic growth respectively from international trade commodity structure impacts,and studies the reasons of international trade commodity structure that result in China's economic slowdown by using comparative analysis,chart analysis and econometric analysisThis paper is divided into five parts.The first part is introduction.It contains the background and the significance of selected topic,and research ideas and methods.In the second part,it introduces the relationship between international trade commodity structure and economic growth,and historical evolution and current research situation of domestic and foreign theories.In the third part,it summarizes the changes and current situation of China's international trade structure and China's economic growth through the analysis of the main trade indicators in the 34 years since the reform and opening up.The fourth part carries on the qualitative and quantitative analysis in international trade commodity structure of China's economic slowdown.With the qualitative analysis,this paper argues that the international trade commodity structure has direct and indirect effects on economic growth.Direct effects embodied that the decline in the export ratio of capital goods and the rise of exports ratio of consumer goods leads to a significant slowdown of economic growth while the changes of proportion of capital goods and consumer goods in import eases the economic slowdown.Indirect effects embody changes of relative proportion between manufactured goods and primary products in import and export impacts economic growth through international trade growth rate.With quantitative analysis,this paper concludes by empirical analysis based on constructing vector auto regression(VAR)model that capital goods and consumer goods in import and export do not have significant synergy on economic growth while the influence of capital goods and consumer goods in import and export respectively on economic growth is very significant,which is consistent with the quantitative analysis.The final part,according to the impact on China's economic growth form the changes of international trade commodity structure,proposes the measures to solve economic slowdown including optimizing capital goods and the import and export structure of consumer goods,strengthening regional cooperation actively,transforming trade growth mode and improving value chain level.