The Study Of The Alleviation Effect Of Bilateral Trade On Bilateral Conflicts Between China And ASEAN Countries

In modern word, the trade connection among countries is getting increasingly close. However, international conflicts frequently occur with the growing international trade volume. The infiltrating effect of international economy and politics is becoming stronger and stronger, while the influencing effect of international trade on international conflicts is increasingly severe. Both China and ASEAN countries are Asian countries, and they are close to each other. Since the foundation of China-ASEAN free trade zone, the trade volume between two parties creates new height. However, due to the existence of historical, geographical and other factors, a series of conflicts keep occurring between two parties. With the wide spreading vies of “China Threat Theory” around the world, it is urgent for China to address the peace and development issues with neighboring countries properly, so as to build a harmonious surrounding environment. Meanwhile, it’s also significant for China to develop bilateral trade and economic connection while reduces the conflict to the smallest degree.The paper utilizes theoretical analysis, theoretical models and empirical models to illustrate the alleviation effect of bilateral trade on bilateral conflicts between China and ASEAN Countries. First, the paper starts with the background of “21 century marine silk road” strategy, introducing the development situation and opportunities of bilateral trade between two parties. The paper finds out that while the connection degree of trade and trade dependence between China and ASEAN countries is getting increasingly tight, with the influence of international factors and bilateral historical conditions, the conflict issues between always exists. Then, the paper summarizes the domestic and foreign literatures concerning how international trade influencing international conflicts from three aspects: theories, models and empirical analysis. Through analyzing the two-country model and three-country model of how international trade influencing international conflicts, we finds out that international trade reduces international conflicts to some degree. In empirical analysis, we utilize the bilateral trade data between China and ASEAN countries to construct simultaneous equations, and adopt the data of conflict and cooperation in the COW4.0 version.We illustrates that the trade between China and ASEAN countries reduces the bilateral conflicts. Finally, through studying the net effect of bilateral trade on bilateral conflicts, the paper introduces effective economic methods to alleviate bilateral conflicts, and promote bilateral trade cooperation, so as to realize stable and fast economic development, which signifies great theoretical and realistic meanings for China. In the latter part of the paper, we analyses the optimal conditions for international trade to alleviate international conflicts. The paper provides three constructive suggestions from three aspects, which are strengthening trade openness to promote trade freedom development, fastening infrastructure construction to optimize trade convenience and strengthening regional cooperation to promote intra-industry trade.