Research On The Interaction Mechanism Of The Agricultural Product Prices And Inflation

In recent years,the public pay close attantion to the transformation of agricultural modernization, One of the important content is the stability of the agricultural prices..As an agricultural country, the agricultural prices' volatility make a great impact on the urban and rural residents' life and the economy. With the opening of the domestic and international market, the global financial macket is more mature.The relationship between inflation and agricultural prices worth more and more exploring,it has practical significance to stabilize agricultural mackets,general price level,the development of agricultural production, the growth of farmers' income and the transformation of agricultural modernization.In the process of studying the interactive mechanism of agricultural prices and inflation,combining the previous research ideas and research results, First, based on the theoretical analysis,analyzing the cause of the fluctuation of agricultural products' price and the causes of inflation, and then analyzing the interaction relationship, I think that the agricultural price volatility will through cost factors,psychological factors that inflation expectations causing inflation, inflation will through demand of agricultural products such as food supplies behavior and exchange rate movements affecting the volatility of agricultural price. The second,based on the collected data, using econometric analysis including cointegration test, granger causality test and variance decomposition to find the relationship between agricultural price volatility and inflation,it is concluded that agricultural prices and inflation are each other's granger cause, and the influence of time delay to each other is three quarters. Next, from the perspective of the composition of agricultural prices such as planting industry product price, animal husbandry product s price, forestry product price and fisherys product price, it is concluded that the planting industry product prices,animal husbandry products prices and forestry product prices have the biggest influence on agricultural products total price,and then through analysiing,concluded that the grain prices and the oil product prices have a greater influence on the planting industry product prices, the pig prices have a greater influence on the animal husbandry products prices, the resin and fruit products prices have a greater influence on the forestry product prices, and then analysing the relationship of these typical agricultural production and the inflation,concluded that the the pig prices, the grain prices, the oil product prices and the resin and fruit products prices have a long-term equilibrium relationship with inflation.Based on the final conclusion, I put forward policy recommendations of the stability and development of agricultural products market, special agricultural products price such as grain prices and pig prices' improvement of the detection system,increasing the efficiency of agricultural producers,promoting the transformation of agricultural modernization and improving the economic structure.