Research On The Effects From Money Supply Shock、Inflation Expectation To Fluctuation In Prices Of Agricultural Products In China

Agriculture is the lifeblood of the national economy, is the foundation of national security; agricultural people living in the most important necessities needed for economic and social development is an important industrial raw materials, its supply security, price stability is to guarantee social stability and people’s normal life an important prerequisite for the orderly development of the national economy has played a crucial role. Since the reform and opening up of China’s frequent fluctuations in agricultural prices affect the development of the people’s living standards, while agricultural price volatility is bound to cause fluctuations in the cost of other productive sectors and output, thereby affecting the normal operation of the entire national economy. Therefore, the price of agricultural products is not only an economic issues, it is a political issue of national security concerns.Since 2010, the global economy is experiencing three decades of the most violent, the most widely used commodity rally, global agricultural prices began to accelerate upward, Chinese agricultural prices also rose sharply unavoidable trend. At the same time the beginning of China’s money supply hit record highs, overwhelmed by a substantial increase in the money supply brought about inflationary pressures hamper the development of the national economy, coupled with rising prices of agricultural products and the vicious circle between inflation in China, to China Macroeconomic tremendous challenge. Visibility of various macroeconomic factors affect the prices of agricultural products intricate role magnified itself flawed macroeconomic system in the agricultural markets. In this context, in-depth study of the various macroeconomic variables, especially the money supply environment, inflation is expected to pass-through effect on prices of agricultural products is particularly important. CPC Central Committee and the State Council in February 2015 issued "on deepen reform and innovation to accelerate the number of views of agricultural modernization," which is the central One file for 12 years focusing agricultural issues, which again emphasizes the stable development of agricultural production and prices to ensure the effective supply of agricultural products, to promote the overall work, won the strategic initiative to ensure that the importance of the national economy.In this study, in recent years, China’s monetary policy and agricultural price policy as the background, the use of quantitative and qualitative research method of combining order quantity theory of money, agricultural prices "overshoot" theory and the theory of rational expectations, focused on the monetary level factors abnormal fluctuations affect the prices of agricultural products produced on the combination of the money supply, Evolution and the latest trends in both the current situation and comparative analysis of agricultural commodity prices, the economic dimension of monetary point of view, theories, ideas and methods, the introduction of inflation expectations as the money supply the impact of price volatility on agricultural conduction channels to analyze and explain the reasons for the excess volatility of prices of agricultural products, and through the establishment of self-regression model validation in the market of agricultural products, the impact of money supply lead to inflation is expected to increase, causing prices of agricultural products such a conduction channel is real, that the conduction channel of monetary supply to our agricultural prices affect inflation expectations. Finally, in order to provide a reference for the optimization policy of monetary policy, effective regulation of the agricultural market price regression model by building a comprehensive analysis of the money supply, inflation is expected to influence the effect of price fluctuations vector since our agricultural products.A. The conclusions of this paper:a. The money supply shocks arising from excess liquidity, is resulting in rising inflation expectations, the main reason for the sharp rise in agricultural prices. Money supply affect the price of agricultural products on the transmission channel is inflation expectations, inflation is expected to play a role in the middle of conduction, the excess can be explained by fluctuations in agricultural prices.b. In the long run, money supply, inflation is expected to exist between the price volatility of agricultural products and a balanced relationship; the short term, the long-term price fluctuations of agricultural products from the impact of money supply, mainly from short-term impact on inflation expectations.c. When the money supply shocks, the economy will suffer twice the impact.B. Policy suggestions:Focus on macro-economic indicators, particularly the impact of monetary conditions on agricultural prices; further improve the information system of agricultural markets, prices of agricultural products and services to improve the work; do a good job of managing inflation expectations and regulation; continuously strengthen the research of agricultural market price transmission mechanism and early warning; timely main factors affecting agricultural price volatility grasp.