| The capital flow across global borders in the 16 th century was the beginning and preliminary foundation of modern financial history.Spain,Portugal and the Netherlands all experienced the baptism of the concentrated surge and the sudden retreat of capital.During the Ming and Qing dynasties,China was also a country infested by capital.The Unified Taxation System Reform of Zhang Juzheng at the end of Ming Dynasty and the development of Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangzhou in the late Ming and early Qing dynasties indirectly benefited from imported international capital which was gold and silver at that time.However,the large import and export of silver resulted in “silver shortage” as if they stuck the neck of imperial court and the“opium war” which exceeded the abilities of the rulers,driving the court out of wits.There was no doubt that the Chinese in those days lacked the wisdom and capacity to control the global capital flow.Globalization led by the west had experienced a warm spring since the 1990 s.The scale of cross-border capital flows among countries in the world was increasingly expanding.Besides,the speed of cross-border capital flows was constantly accelerating and the ways was unceasing innovating.IMF research demonstrated that the speed of financial integration had greatly surpassed the growth of global trade and national economy in the 20 years from 1975 to 1995.It should be acknowledged that there would be no primitive accumulation after China's reform and opening up and no investment in industrial infrastructure without this stage of capital flow,not to mention the support for China's future economic development.What we should take most pride in is that although China has paid “tuition fees”,Chinese submit a brilliant global capital operation “answer sheet” in such a historical period.Large scale cross-border capital flows might also pose a threat to global and regional financial stability while enhancing the power of economic development.Emerging economies sustained losses from the Latin American debt crisis in 1982 to the Mexican Peso Crisis in 1994 and finally to the Asian financial crisis in 1997.Although crises erupted frequently,the losses suffered by developed countries were limited so that the enthusiasm of western capital to march towards the international market did not diminish.The upsurge of investment from west to east occurred repeatedly,cross-border capital flows increased strongly,and the scale reached a new historical high before the financial crisis in 2007.In 2005,Shapiro,former deputy secretary of Commerce of the United States,held that with the real arrival of globalization of capital markets,the scale and variety of financial asset flows in world economic activities had dwarfed any previous historical period.In 2007,the US subprime mortgage crisis swept across the world and the market liquidity dried up in a short period of time.The economy and society of the western developed countries were seriously impacted,which showed the strong destructive power of cross-border capital flows on economy and finance.The 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis helped people understand that the imperfect market mechanism must be supplemented by government economic intervention measures.Countries probably have no chance to change the trend of the expansion of cross-border capital flows,nor can any of them adopt management measures to completely restrict crossborder capital flows under an open economy.Therefore,the management of crossborder capital flows has no doubt become an important topic which must be studied in depth by monetary policy authorities in the world.This paper conducted relevant research step by step based on the research paradigm of “raising problems-analyzing problems-solving problems” and the logical thinking of “literature review-typical facts-data analysis-models and empirical testspolicy recommendations and summaries”,applying comprehensively relevant theories of macroeconomics,econometrics,international finance and statistics and using research methods,for instance dynamic panel model and time and entity fixed effects model.To begin with,this paper reviewed the history of cross-border capital flows,focusing on the analyse of the new features of cross-border capital flows in the past 20 years.This paper affirmed the positive significance of cross-border capital flow,and also pointed out that cross-border capital flow is a significant cause for the economic and financial crisis in some countries.Based on the existing research,the calculation methods of gross and net cross-border capital flows were defined.A large panel data set covering 106 countries or regions was established to analyze the characteristics of global cross-border capital flows from two perspectives of gross capital inflow and gross capital outflow.Emphasis was put on comparing the differences between precrisis and post-crisis,finding that cross-border capital flows have the characteristics of variability,procyclicality and heterogeneity.And then,the empirical research was done to explore driving factors of crossborder capital flows in emerging economies and the relationship between cross-border capital flows and economic growth,economic imbalance and financial vulnerabilities.Considering the availability of data of different variables,45 countries from the above106 countries were selected to study the driving factors of cross-border capital flows in emerging economies,focusing on the analysis of the driving factors in Asia and the commonness and heterogeneity in other regions.The empirical results of panel data sets employing GMM indicated that institutional quality and domestic factors have important impacts on attracting capital inflows for emerging economies.As for the Asian region,per capita income growth and trade openness are significant drivers to attract capital inflows,and the VIX Index and shadow interest rate have vital influences on the scale of capital flows in emerging Asian economies.This paper also emphasized the empirical test of the relationship between different types of capital flows and economic growth and financial vulnerability.It has been found that different types of capital inflow play different roles in economic growth and financial stability.FDI may strongly promotes economic growth,while other investment flows are closely related to macroeconomic imbalances(especially currency overvaluation)and financial vulnerabilities(private sector credit growth,non-performing loan ratio and currency mismatch).In addition,policy recommendations were put forward on the basis of the analysis of the policy practices of Japan,India and South Korea,and in combination with the facts of China.This paper holds that in the face of the impact of non-traditional monetary policy,the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows is further enhanced.Developed and developing countries should attach great importance to the challenges which are brought by cross-border capital flows,expand continuously the policy toolkit,and balance the usage of multiple tools to cope with them.At the end of this paper,the research conclusion and innovation points of this paper were summarized,the insufficiency of current research were pointed out,and the future research direction were made sure. |
PDF Full Text Request