Research And Design Of Network Security Situation Assessment And Prediction Method Based On Stochastic Game Model

Today's network environment is increasingly complex,network attacks are increasingly severe,and the scene of offense and defense changes dynamically in real time.The development of network security technology from the original passive safety technology to active safety technology,from the analysis of a single safety factor to the development of the overall network security analysis.Network security situation assessment and prediction technology can assess and predict the overall status of network security,which has important research significance.In this dissertation,the existing network security situation assessment and prediction technology is studied,and the existing situation assessment and prediction methods are analyzed to find that the current offensive and defensive information can't be effectively combined to make the assessment and prediction inaccurate.The quantitative analysis model is put forward respectively for the assessment and prediction of network security situation.Aiming at the problem of inaccurate evaluation result caused by the lack of comprehensive evaluation of threat information,protective information and environment information,a method of network security situation evaluation based on stochastic game is proposed.This method analyzes the threat propagation and establishes the threat communication network,and then establishes a stochastic game model for the game process of the threat action and the defense strategy to solve the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium.Based on the Nash equilibrium results of hybrid strategy,the quantitative analysis of network security situation is conducted to obtain the security protection strategy.The evaluation method of this paper has been tested and verified,which can more accurately assess the network security situation and better fit the actual scenario.Aiming at the lack of the analysis of the influence of the change of the factors of the security situation on the future situation,this paper proposes a method of the network security situation prediction based on the prediction of the factors of the security situation.This method comprehensively considers the change of elements of the security situation and ignores the elements of the situation that do not change in the short term,such as topology and service information.It mainly analyzes the dynamic changes of attack information,vulnerability information and defensive measures,and forecasts the situation from both the host and network levels.The method of prediction in this paper is verified by experiments,which can improve the prediction accuracy and is more in line with the attack scenario.