Dual-system Model Based On Administrative Records And Its Application

Some economic policies and social development of a country are planed according to the population in it.Census is the main method of obtaining demographic data in various countries,but we must ensure the accuracy of the data before using it.Thus,assess the quality of census become a top priority census work.In the world,Post-Enumeration Survey method is the commonly used method to assess the quality of census,and the Dual-system model based on capture and recapture sampling is the core assessment methodology of the Post-Enumeration Survey method.There are three problems existed when using the Dual-system model in practice.First,the application of this model requires strict assumptions.Second,post-survey not only raise the cost of the survey,but also burden the respondents.Third,since the confidentiality of information on the population,led scholars limited by theory in studying the dual system model,and less empirical research in our country.Improve the dual-system model by introducing administrative records is intended to provide a reference for the census quality assessment.Considering the superiority of the administrative record,try to build Dual-system model using administrative records instead of the Post-Enumeration Survey data,it can expand the application of the Dual-system model in census evaluation.For the sixth census in China,adjust the administrative records different from census time by the population balance equation.Estimate the total population according the Dual-system estimator built by census data and adjusted administrative records.The sources of records are not all the same,different records may have different estimates.Considering the information of administrative records in 2009-2011,it will be more valuable if we do a calibration for these three estimates.The results shows that the quality of the sixth census in China within an acceptable range.Administrative records are compulsory registration in China,the source is totally census independent and this can overcome the interaction deviation.In addition,administrative data has low cost to obtain and low non-response.The new Dual-system model based upon administrative records can not only meet the assumptions,but also can give a good method to estimate total population in the absence of microscopic personal data.