Accuracy Evaluation And Revision Of China Provincial Population

China's population accounts for 1/5 of the world's total population,the huge population size makes China's population statistics work very complex.The demographic data of the China Statistical Yearbook and the state Gazette are calculated mainly through census data once every ten years,1%of the population sampling survey data once every five years and 1 per 1000 population sampling survey data once each year.The accuracy of the survey data is affected by the survey cost,sample distribution and non-response.The accuracy assessment and revision of the population statistics have become an important part of the work of population statistics.The accuracy of census data in our country is better than that of non-census annual sample survey.Because the census has invested a lot of effort,material resources,financial resources,using more advanced research equipment,designing more rigorous investigation program,the accuracy of its data is relatively higher.After the census data is published,it is necessary to use the census data to revise other annual population data,in order to improve the accuracy of China's population statistics.National population data is closely related to provincial population data.But in different periods,the change of the total population of the provinces is not exactly the same in all provinces.The accuracy assessment and revision of the total population of the provinces should take into account the development trend of provincial population and the differences between provinces.The total population is closely related to the population growth rate.Accuracy assessment of population growth rate is a new point of view to assess the accuracy of the total population,overcoming the impact of the province's population scale differences.In view of China's provincial population growth rate,establish fixed effect model,with population growth rate of provincial effects and year effects described provincial population growth rate of inter provincial differences and trends for the year,analyzing China's provincial population trends.At present,the research on China's population statistics data revision and revision method is relatively few.Based on the fixed effect model,this paper makes use of the data of the fifth census and the sixth census to revise the annual provincial population data from 2001 to 2009,which provides a theoretical reference for the revision of China's population statistics.