Study On Impact Of Age Structure Change On Potential Economic Growth In China

Economic growth in China increased in a high speed in an average of 10% per year from 2008 to 2012.Demographic dividend caused by aging structure change is one of the most important motivation. However, after 2013, aging structure in our country has changed and demographic dividend disappeared. At the same time, economy growth rate declined year by year. Aging structure changes influence not only the economy growth in the short term, but also the potential economic growth in the long run. has changed, because of deepening degree of aging population, age structure has changed and demographic dividend has disappeared in the recent years. At the same time, Therefore, this essay study on the feature of our aging structure change and the impact of aging structure change on our potential economic growth.This paper reviews theories of the impact of aging structure changes on economy. And then do some theoretical analysis on the impact of aging structure change on potential economy growth in three ways. They are the impact of aging structure on labor supply, capital stock and total factor productivity. Then calculate 1990-2014 potential economic growth rate in our country using production function. At last, based on Solow-Swan economic growth theory, this paper builds a econometric model to study aging structure change influence on potential economic growth. The result of empirical research is that each 1% change in population aging structure causes -2.68% changes in potential economic growth rate per person.The conclusions of this paper are as follows,1, China's population age structur e transition goes faster than average affected by policy. Since the late 1980s demograp hic dividend caused by the alleviation of rearing children burden brings promotion to the potential economic growth. But in the near future, the aggravation of the burden o f the elderly dependency will hinder our ability of potential economic growth.We shou Id release fertility restrictive policies to supplement labor demand in the future. At the same time, employment and labor quality should be promoted comprehensively to e nsure our ability of potential economic growth.