Research On Chinese Divorce Problem Based On Spatial Statistics Method

The rising divorce rate has both profound social background and historical background in China,and it also highlights the changes in the values of people at this stage.Using the official data from the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper mainly studies the China's divorce issue from the following two aspects:(1)In this paper,based on the study about the regional differences of China's divorce rate,it also makes statistical analysis in aspects of spatial aggregation characteristic and temporal characteristic.Research results reveal the spatial evolution of China's divorce issue.This study found: The divorce rate of each province in China is showing the non-random distribution in space.From the whole perspective,there always been a significant positive spatial aggregation in China's provinces that is high-high or low-low characteristic.From characteristics of local aggregation in different provinces,the high-high characteristic is mainly in provinces including Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Jilin,and the low-low characteristic is mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern coastal provinces in China.From year 2004 to2012,the high-high characteristic and significant hot spot regions are gradually concentrated in Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Jilin.The low-low characteristic and significant cold spot regions decrease gradually and completely disappear till 2014.(2)By using the spatial regression model,this paper not only makes effective analysis of the influence factors of China's divorce rate,but also quantified the spatial interaction effect of divorce rate in all provinces.This study shows that: there are significant correlations between divorce rate and social factors,family factors and ethnic factors.Social factors,including urbanization level,per capital GDP,the level of consumption,high school and above education,population mobility,etc.they are playing a significant positive role in the rising divorce rate.Family factors,including the birth rate,the illiteracy rate,family population,numbers of children,etc.they have a negative effect on the rising divorce rate.Ethnic factors do have significant effects on divorce rate.The more population of ethnic minorities,the more obvious of the divorce rate will rise.Compared the ordinary regression model with the spatial regression model,it is found that the estimated value of the model has been changed greatly when the spatial correlation effect of the divorce rate is added to the regression model.Allcoefficients of the explanatory variables become smaller,which indicates that the coefficient explanatory variables in the ordinary regression model are overestimated.Therefore,it can be seen that the traditional econometric model has a lot of shortcomings in processing of spatial data.