The Development Trend Of The Crime Of Theft In A City Of Jiangsu Province

Accurate prediction of crime is the premise of effective prevention of crime.Doctrine of crime prevention study sense,based on pure value deduction,to highlight the position of game theory,engraved in the process of thinking is difficult to break through the limit constraints,and ultimately can only be circulating in the doctrine in the logic of time.Causes of crime generation are of variety and multi-level characteristics,from the perspective of crime prevention doctrine,mostly based on"rational speculation" to the design,namely "speculation" to the general public for crime prevention(general prevention)and crime(special prevention)may have a certain effect.But this "rational speculation" is not only difficult to prove,the argument is so fragile and dangerous to be refuted in refute others at the same time they are facing.Crime prevention should not be the product of rational speculation,but should be based on scientific prediction on the basis of scientific results.This study is based on A City,combined with the factors such as the per capita GDP,floating population,the number of theft cases in A in 2006,-2015,to build a multiple linear regression model,to find a scientific way to predict the development trend of theft.On the basis of the evaluation factors will influence the crime of theft,known divided into medium factors and micro factors and macro factors;after detailed analysis of the factors affecting the crime of theft,found that economic factors and population factors may be major factors that affect the development trend of the crime of theft:on the one hand,A economic growth too fast,but the per capita income of A city residents to reduce the purchasing power caused by the income gap,the low level of income grow with each passing day life pressure;on the other hand,high-speed mobile population,the formation of stranger society and the increased social inequality,the alienation of the bottom layer people personality,is an important cause of the crime of theft growth.Taking this as the logical starting point,this research selects the per capita GDP,the permanent resident population,the floating population as the independent variable,and constructs the model to predict the development trend of the A's theft.Through the correlation test and the fitting test,it is found that the per capita GDP and the floating population are the independent variables to predict the development trend of the crime of theft.After the forecast found that A in the next three years,theft will still grow,but with the GDP growth rate slowed,the floating population continued to integrate into the city of A,the growth rate of theft has slowed significantly.In order to effectively curb the growth of A,the theft of the momentum,should uphold the "sparse" larceny concept of governance,to play a key role of social policies to solve various social problems of the floating population,to realize the effective transformation of theft governance mode.