Balance Of Threat And The Indo-Soviet Treaty Of Peace,Friendship And Cooperation

The Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace,Friendship and Cooperation was signed on 9 August 1971,a few months before the third Indo-Pakistan war had started.This treaty specified mutual strategic cooperation between India and the Soviet Union.But the signing of the treaty was a significant deviation from the India’s previous position of non-alignment which India followed from the time of its independence.India and Pakistan had emerged in the South Asia region in 1947.However,these two countries were the part of one state for a long time,from the beginning of the time they got independence,relations between India and Pakistan weren’t stable.The first Indo-Pakistani war occurred in 1947 over Kashmir.And although the United Nation did interfere into the conflict and the ceasefire was proclaimed,it didn’t stop the hostility between the two countries and the clashes had periodically happened on the border.During the interwar period,the leadership of both countries tried to improve relations.However,these attempts were not quite successful and the second IndoPakistani war has happened in 1965.The reason for the dispute was again Kashmir.At that time,the Soviet Union was a mediator in the negotiations which took place in Tashkent.But this peace conference didn’t stop hostility and the relations between the two countries became worse.The situation in the South Asia region has changed after Nixon took the Office in 1969.One of his foreign policy goals was the normalization of the relation with China.Nixon and Kissinger wanted Pakistan,who was close Chinese partner,to be a mediator in that process.And already in the beginning of the 1970 s,the first secret contacts between the United States and China through Pakistan has started.The next big crisis in the region happened in 1971 when the military clash between the two parts of Pakistan(East and West)has started.That conflict led to the big flow of refugees headed to India.The refugee crises caused economic,social and security problems for New Delhi and the Indian leadership understood that the conflict and refugees crisis as well would be finished only if India would intervene.But at the same time,they were aware of the fact that it could lead to the external interference of the US or China.The possibility of the United States and China intervention as a support to Pakistan in a case of the war between India and Pakistan was perceived by Indian leadership as a threat to its national interest.Thus,India was urged to sign the treaty of Peace,Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union because the Indian leadership was aware of the fact that the USSR could counter both China and the United States.The main research question is: Why did India sign the Treaty of Peace,Friendship and Cooperation and change its foreign policy during the crises in the East Pakistan in 1971.The researcher didn’t find a paper or a research which would have an explanation for this question based on the balance of threat theory.There are numerous papers which emphasize the importance of the treaty for India during the war with Pakistan in 1971.Other papers are giving explanations of the reasons which led to the crises in the South Asia region in 1971.But none of these works focus on this particular question.The hypothesis,which was developed through the thesis,is based on a possible threat perceived by the Indian leadership which was embodiment through potential(military or any other)involvement of the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China in the war which might erupt between India and Pakistan.Such measures would be directed as a support and allow Pakistan reach its military objectives in the East Part.Obviously,from such point of view,Indian leadership predicted negative outcomes to their interests,recognized a direct threat to the Indian military objectives in the region and sleeked for an immediate response.In a case of the signing of the treaty with the Soviet Union,India would easily be able to restrain other parties,namely China and the United States,from major deployment of troops and not allow them,at least not directly,to engage in any military operations which could be launched with the aim of weakening Indian military or another capacity.Thus,India did sign the treaty with the Soviet Union in 1971 because of the perception of the threat from China or the US potential involvement into the IndoPakistan war as a support for Pakistan.The thesis includes 5 chapters.Chapter 1 is the introduction.It presents a short history of Indo-Pakistan relations from the time of independence and gives the short description of the situation in the region at the beginning of the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971.The theoretical approach is also explained in the first chapter.The balance of threat theory was proposed by Stephen M.Walt first in an article titled "Alliance formation and the Balance of World Power"(1985)which was later elaborated in his book "The origins of Alliances"(1987).The balance of threat theory explains interstate alliances.According to it,states ally to balance against threats rather than against power alone.In accordance with S.Walt,Balance of threat theory predicts that when there is an imbalance of threat(i.e.,when one state or coalition appears especially dangerous),states will form alliances or increase their internal efforts in order to reduce their vulnerabilityChapter Two will seek to describe the history of Indo-Pakistan relations and to further elaborate the reasons for the hostility between the two states.One of the main aims of the chapter is to show the development of the relations between India and Pakistan from the time of the independence in 1947.This will give an understanding which factors influenced the dynamic of bilateral relations and led them to conflict in 1971.The Third Chapter focuses mainly on the bilateral relations between the main actors involved in the conflict and provides set of the reasons which influenced the system of alliances which was formed in the region at that point of time.It describes the character of relations between the main players of the 1971 conflict,shows its development,presents the circumstances which influenced countries to enter one or another alliance and giving an explanation why one or another alliance worked or didn’t work out.Chapter Four explains the reasons which led to the Bangladesh liberation War.This chapter represents the main point of the work,where researcher explains the reasons which made India sign the Treaty of 1971.It will also describe the connection between the Balance of Threat theory and the reasons which made India sign the Treaty of Peace,Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1971.After the Bangladesh Liberation war has broken out,a number of refugees from the East Part of Pakistan to India,which brought economic,social and security problems to the Indian leadership,reached 1 mln.and Indira Gandhi realized that only Indian interference into the war could stop the crises and make all refugees come back to PakistanAt the same time,Gandhi understood that Indian intervention into the Bangladesh Liberation war could create the threat from the United States and China entering the conflict on the side of Pakistan.That would lead to the Indian possible defeat.Thus,India had to look for an ally which could eliminate the threat of the external involvement.At that point of time,it was only the Soviet Union,So,the perception of threat from the United States and China involvement into the possible Indian-Pakistan conflict compelled India to sign the treaty of Peace,Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1971.Eventually,the Chapter 5 concluded that India did sign the treaty with the Soviet USSR because of the circumstances(war in East Pakistan,refugee crises and the threat of the potential external powers involvement)that have developed in the South Asian region.The main reason was the threat from the US and China involvement into India-Pakistan War as a support to Pakistan.