Study On Evolutionary Mechanism Of Natural Disaster Group Incidents

Our country is determined to suffer from frequent natural disasters which have great impacts on the economy, social development and people's production and living by the particularity of its geographical position. On the one hand, natural disasters lead to various direct losses and secondary disasters. One the other hand, since China is in the period of social transition, there are obvious differences with the past in people's life style, behavior pattern and the choice of ways to express appeals and relief feelings. Group incidents may probably happen in the process of natural disasters' occurrence, rescue and post-disaster reconstruction, such as plundering materials and impacting government departments. Those group incidents caused or derived by natural disasters are named natural disaster group incidents in the study. While in the current academic circles, researches on natural disaster group incidents are rarely seen. From the angle of both academic and realistic demands, doing research on group disaster incidents is of huge importance.Based on the above background, natural disaster group incident is discussed as a core object by methods of literature review, theory analysis, summary and case study, from its features, internal and external dynamic factors, evolution sequence, coupling mechanism and evolution path. Natural disaster group incidents' features are summarized by specific sources, simple initial targets, irrational group behaviors and limit group sizes and their types are categorized by action mode, breakout form and coupling pattern. Natural disaster group incidents' internal and external dynamic factors are analyzed as group demand, group structure, group psychology, external environment and behavior of related subjects, and the evolution sequence is divided by latency phase, budding phase, developing phase, breaking phase and subsiding phase, based on which dynamic mechanism model is built. Then, in order to explain the work conditions and effects of each factor in principle, coupling mechanism is studied by dissecting three effects of coupling factors-superposition, promotion and cutting. As for the evolution path, it is summarized as straight, divergent, centralized, cyber, cyclic and combined. Based on the above theoretical study, the supply plunder event in Yuyao is selected as an example for case study, analyzing its features, type, dynamic mechanism and evolution process by node deconstruction.Through theoretical and case study, conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) Natural disaster group incidents are featured as having clear sources of directivity, which makes them only occur in a specific environment.(2) The evolution of natural disaster group incidents is driven by the mutual coupling effects of various dynamic factors, and each coupling effect's generation has its own conditions.(3) Different measures should be taken to block the path of energy delivery and development of natural disaster group incidents.This study can give some reference to the practice of natural disaster group incidents' management, and has some certain theoretical significance.