Research On The Potential Of China's Cultural Goods Export To "The Belt&Road" Countries

Since the reform and opening to the outside world,China's foreign trade has developed rapidly.Especially,since China joined WTO,the foreign trade has entered a golden period.However,in recent years,affected by the downturn of international economic market,the rise of domestic factor costs,the fall of the traditional competitive advantage and so on,the growth rate of China's foreign trade has declined substantially.Promoting economic restructuring and upgrading,maintaining stable and rapid economic development has become a top priority.In this situation,as an important way for sustainable economic growth,the cultural trade has attracted public's attention.In 2009,the State Council promulgated "the cultural industry revitalization plan",which raised the development of cultural industries to the national strategy for the first time.In 2011,the Chinese government work report clearly put forward that we should develop the cultural industry and turn it into a pillar industry in national economy.In 2014,"opinions of State Council on accelerating the development of foreign cultural trade" pointed out that accelerating the development of foreign cultural trade can play a significant role in keeping steady growth,promoting employment,improving people's livelihood,enhancing the country's soft power and constructing a comprehensive well-off society.Under a series of measures,China's cultural trade has developed rapidly.United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization released a study that China had become the world's biggest cultural goods exporter and its exports amounted to 60.1 billion in 2013,much higher than the United States,whose exports was $27.9 billion.However,although the development situation is good,the export of Chinese cultural goods is faced with many problems,such as the excessive concentration of export market.The export focused on the United States,the European Union and other markets,which should be attached great importance to.It can increase the risk of trade development,especially,the special attributes of cultural goods make it susceptible to protectionist's policy discrimination."the Belt&Rode" initiative provides a good opportunity for China's cultural goods to enter new markets.As we all know,five major areas of "the Belt&Rode" initiative is policy coordination,facilities connectivity,unimpeded trade,financial integration and people-to-people bonds.Cultural trade can play a very significant role in promoting people-to-people bonds.Therefore,promoting the export of China's cultural goods to "the Belt&Rode" countries and exploiting the "the Belt&Rode" countries'market potential will not only help China break through economic woes,realize sustainable development of China's cultural goods exports,but also can be helpful to implement "the Belt&Rode" initiative.In this paper,chapter land 2 are the introduction and literature review for theories.Chapter 3 is mainly the analysis about present situation and problems,It is concluded that there are problems like the decline of export rate,imbalance in the structure of products,market concentration.In chapter 4,this paper analyzes the factor affecting china's cultural goods exports to "the Belt&Rode" countries theoretically and constructs the stochastic frontier model of gravity and trade inefficiency model.Chapter 5 is the empirical analysis.This chapter studies empirically the influencing factors and measures the export potential.The research results shows that China's GDP,importers' GDP and the common language can promote the export of Chinese cultural goods;The population of importers and geographic distance between China and importers can hinder the export of Chinese cultural goods;The government efficiency,investment freedom and cultural distance between China and importers can reduce export efficiency,importers' trade and transport infrastructure and signing a free trade agreement can be helpful to reduce inefficiency and promote the export of China's cultural goods.From 2007 to 2015,the export efficiency of China's cultural goods to importers was the downward trend after rising first,in 2013,the export efficiency reached the maximum value of 0.468,it shows that the export efficiency of China's cultural goods to "the Belt&Rode" countries was still low;The export efficiency of China's cultural goods to Thailand,Singapore,Malaysia,Vietnam,Indonesia and other southeast Asian countries was the highest.Hungary,Slovakia,Slovenia,Croatia,Bulgaria and other central and Eastern Europe countries has the lowest export efficiency.By measuring the export potential,it is concluded that the export potential of cultural goods is great.Chapter6 is about the main conclusions and suggestions.According to the theoretical research and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations to promote the export of China's cultural goods to "the Belt&Rode" countries.In this paper,research perspective and using modeling tools may be some kind of innovation.Up to now,the existing literatures have mainly focused on problems and development path between China and other countries along "the Belt&Rode".This paper studies the cultural trade between China and "the Belt&Rode" countries from the export potential perspective,which supplements this field.In addition,the stochastic frontier model of gravity was mainly used to study trade potential between countries or agricultural goods;this paper tries to apply the model to analysis the export potential of cultural goods,which is a certain innovation.However,the access to data exists on the block and the editor has some limitations in background knowledge,there are some shortcomings on the samples and indicators.