The United State’s Evaluation And Prediction On The Atomic Bomb Of The Soviet Union(1946-1953)

The atomic bomb is a significant development of human science and technology since twentieth Century.It has played an important role in the end of World War II.In addition,because of its amazing destructive power,the atomic bomb is often a symbol of national military and technological power,but also affect the relationship between the two countries and the trend of the international situation.After World War II,the United States became the only superpower with nuclear weapons,and the Soviet Union formed a strategic advantage of nuclear weapons.In order to break the American nuclear monopoly,the Soviet Union has been carried out in secret atomic bomb research program of its own,and has made great progress in information technology,investment and other aspects,the final in 1949 successfully detonated their first atomic bomb,the Soviet Union in strategic nuclear superiority and American racing together bridle to bridle.In this process,the role played by the U.S.intelligence agencies is essential.Although the U.S.intelligence agencies and government officials have been through the relevant information on the Soviet Union’s atomic bomb program to assess and predict,but there is a major mistake,so that the U.S.government by surprise.The deviation of the light before,the United States has conducted a series of remedial measures,including the development of more powerful hydrogen bomb and so on.With the help of some of the original archival material,focusing on the United States to evaluate and predict the development of the Soviet atomic bomb,attempts from the perspective of the United States regarding this event to the United States and the Soviet Union caused far-reaching influence,and from the international relations and the international situation and other aspects to look at this issue.This paper is composed of three parts: introduction,body and conclusion.The body part is composed of four chapters.The first part is the introduction,which is the first chapter of the thesis.The second part is the main body,which is the second,three or four and five chapter of the thesis.The second chapter is divided into two parts: first part introduces the composition and function of the United States is responsible for the assessment and prediction of departments,including the Central Intelligence Agency,the Federal Bureau of investigation,the national security administration,shouldering the important work of national foreign intelligence.In addition,the Ministry of defense,the president’s office,the Secretary of state and foreign ambassadors also undertake a number of external assessments of the task.The other part introduces the background of the Soviet Union and the development of the atomic bomb.Soviet Union due to the end of World War II,the international status of a substantial increase,but also the rapid economic recovery,and from Germany to get a lot of talent and raw materials.And the United States and the Soviet Union from the war against the opposition,the Soviet Union developed the atomic bomb become increasingly urgent target.The third chapter gives a brief introduction to the process and content of the evaluation and prediction of the atomic bomb of the Soviet Union in the United States.In the early days,though the Soviet Union expressed the hope that the peaceful use of atomic energy,the United States foreign ambassadors and the agency still expressed doubts and fears about the Soviet Union.With the deterioration of Soviet relations and the deepening of the cold war,the United States has accelerated the process of detailed evaluation and prediction on the Soviet atomic bomb.A series of agencies,such as the CIA,the Department of defense and the president’s special adviser,have been put into the campaign.After research and analysis,Americans believe that the Soviet Union at least 5 years to successfully develop the atomic bomb,or even longer.The fourth chapter focuses on the analysis of the results of the evaluation and prediction on the atomic bomb in the United States of the Soviet Union.From the results,the prediction of the United States has a major mistake,the Soviet Union onlyused more than 3 years of time,on the successful test of the atomic bomb in 1949,breaking the United States and the monopoly status.From the point of view,the United States itself as a result of the lack of intelligence agencies and the blind optimism made an error analysis,and the Soviet Union to do a very good job security.From the impact,the U.S.nuclear monopoly advantage was broken,the Soviet Union with the United States is not balanced between the military and technological strength has been greatly changed,and even the pattern of the cold war is thus further deepening.The fifth chapter describes the response of the United states.The government of the Soviet Union successfully developed the atomic bomb was shocked,because the monopoly advantage of nuclear weapons has ceased to exist,the United States government instructed the scientific community speed up the development of more powerful thermonuclear weapons bomb pace.At the same time,as the Soviet Union already possessed nuclear weapons,the United States began to further evaluate and predict the possible invasion of the Soviet Union and the possible outbreak of nuclear war.The last part is the conclusion,which summarizes and sums up the whole article.