Empirical Study Of Ebola Outbreak In West Africa During 2014-2016 Years Based On SEIHFCR Model

Infectious diseases have always been detrimental to the health of human beings,so it is of great significance to study the mechanism of transmission.The kinetics of infectious diseases is the science that uses mathematical models to analyze and study disease transmission.On the basis of fully understanding infectious diseases principle,building the model according to the transmission mechanism can make the model constantly close to the actual situation of infectious diseases,provide more reliable and effective parameter estimates.In this paper,according to the analysis of current ebola virus transmission in west Africa,we build the SEIHFCR model with adding convalescence compartment for sexual transmission,dividing the transmission routes into four diferrent ways,such as community contact,hospital contact,burial customs and sex behavior.In the aspect of data,we conduct an empirical analysis by using the data from west Africa ebola outbreak in 2014-2016,including the overall outbreak,guinea,Liberia and sierra leone outbreaks.In the process of analysis,we use the maximum likelihood estimation to obtain important estimated parameters of the outbreak,including infection rates,control coefficients,reproductive numbers and the dates on effective reproductive number decreased to 1,and giving the fitting curve of cumulative cases in different areas.Research shows that before the government control,the basic reproductive number of overall,Guinea,Liberia and Sierra Leone areas are greater than 1.There is a form of endemic disease risk;After the implementation of government control,control coefficients on different regions are greater than zero,and the most serious transmission routes will be more tightly controlled.From the perspective of the dates on which effective reproductive number reduced to 1,overall,Guinea,Liberia and Sierra Leone regions present on October 25,2014,October 28,2014,October 10,2014 and November 1,2014 respectively.It shows that the government is implementing some successful and effective intervention measures.In contrast with the SEIHFR model,SEIHFCR model in different areas has smaller RMSE,consistent with the actual situation of the outbreak.