Analysis Of The Efficiency Of The Preventing And Isolating Treatments Of SARS Based On Mathematical Model

In this thesis, a severe infection—Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was considered. The development of SARS in 2003 in Beijing, China was summarized. Based on a mathematical model of time-delayed differential equation, it is concluded that the measures preventing and isolating treatments of SARS taken by the Chinese government were effective. This thesis includes the following contents:(1) The whole process of SARS' infection and development in Beijing and the corresponding treatments that our government adopts during different phases were summarized.(2) Based on a mathematical model of time-delayed differential equation, the asymptotic status of SARS infectivity when time tends to infinity was studied under the hypothetical condition of no preventing and isolating treatments. This implies the efficiency of the preventing and isolating treatments of SARS taken by the government.(3) By computer simulation, it is concluded that if no preventing and isolating treatments were taken, the total number of people infected by SARS at the end of the epidemic was mainly determined by the basic reproductive number R.