A Multi-stage Scheduling Method For Medical Resources Order And Distribution Based On Influenza Diffusion Model

In recent years,with the rapid development of economy,frequent population movements,population aging,the proportion of high-risk groups increasing,influenza hazards and the importance of monitoring and prevention have gradually attracted great attention at all levels of government.As the common drugs of the market have rarely effect during the period of influenza spread,patients must go to the hospital for targeted anti-viral drug treatment,which will bring the inventory management of the hospital and the distribution centres great challenge.When the stock is too much,it will not only cause the backlog of funds,but also lead to drugs expiration and the increase of storage costs easily.On the other hand,if the inventory is too low,it may be out of stock and thus result in greater economic losses or even life-threatening.Therefore,how to order and assign the medical resource have become hot issues in recent years during influenza pandemics.This paper presents a multi-stage scheduling model for medical resources order and distribution that can be used in the control of influenza diffusion.Firstly,the dynamics model of influenza diffusion under population flow is established to find out the key control parameters of diffusion.Then,the drug time-varying demand forecasting model is also constucted.Secondly,from the perspective of demand driven and capacity constraints,the overall assignment optimization behavior of influenza patients is studies.Then,the coordination and optimization model of drug order and distribution is constructed based on the factors such as the production capacity of drug manufacturers and the ordering decision making of drug reserve distribution centers and so on;Thirdly,the restriction on "overall assignment optimization behavior of influenza patients" is relaxed.Then,considering the stochastic assignment of flu patients to hospitals,how to constuct ordering and distribution model of medical material minimizes the total cost of operations;Based on the above analysis,this paper further extends the deterministic model.When the fixed order size is changed as a decision variable,the ordering and distribution model of medical material is how to constuct and the optimal order quantity is how to change.Through the research,we found:(1)the transmission rate and the recovery rate of flu have a great influence on the number of the infected invidiuals as well as the total cost of the ordering and distribution,so the parameters should be focused by the decision makers.(2)Compared with the random assignment of patients,the total cost is lower when the patient is overall assigned to the hospital,But it doesn’t prove that its practical application value is better than that of the random assignment.The reason is that the condition of the overall assignment is ideal,in contrast,the random assignment is more suitable for the kind of non-emergency outbreak problems such as flu,which more fits the actual situation.(3)When the fixed order size is changed as a decision variable,the optimal order quantity varies with the change of the drug demand.Compared with the fixed order size,the non-fixed order decision cannot only meet the actual needs,but more conducively control the overall logistics operating costs.