Hemorrhagic Fever Of Renal Syndrome Monitoring Results Analysis And Trend Prediction In Anhui Province In 2005-2015

Objective The objective of the study was to analyze the virus index and the change of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Anhui province during2005-2015.The linear regression equation was established in the base of the virus index of rats and the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.Explored a more accurate prediction of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in order to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Anhui province.In addition,the results of the study also can provide scientific basis for further investigation and study on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.Methods According to the "national surveillance program of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(for Trial Implementation)",we detected virus antigen of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in rat lung and rat blood samples by immuno fluorescence(IFA),and virus antibody by enzyme linked immuno sorbent assay(ELISA).Additionally,we collected venous blood of people in the area of mouses location,then detected Ig G virus antibody by IFA;The database was established using Excel 2010 and statistical analysis was performed by SPSS 13.0.The correlation of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome of people and the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome of rats was analysed by Spearman correlation analysis and Chi-square test in Anhui province during 2005-2015.Results 1843 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were reported,29 cases were dead,and the average annual incidence rate was 0.257/(10million)during2005-2015 in Anhui province.Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome occurred in Anhui province every month,there were 2 peak incidence,respectively as autumn-winter and spring,the ratio was between 2.6 and 3.1 times.The incidence areas were mainly in Fuyang city of 398 cases,Xuancheng city of 271 cases and 242 cases in Bozhou City.The incidence of the population were mainly in young male farmers accounted for 73.96%(1363/1843).The density of rats was 11,the average was 4.61%in Anhui Province during 2005-2015.Rodent species Apodemus agrarius accounted for57.10%(3691/6464).The second is Rattus norvegicus accounted for 28.53%(1844/6464).The average incidence rate of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome has a certain correlation with the changes of the index of the corresponding years during2005-2015 in Anhui province.Linear regression equation was established according to the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.incidence rate=0.0524+3.497 *(the virus index).Forecasted incidence of hemorrhagic fever of renal syndrome of Anhui province in 2015 was 0.2556/(10million)according to the linear regression equation,95% confidence interals(95%CI)was [0.2307/(10million),0.2832/(10million)],the actual value was 0.2681/(10million).