| Jilin province is an important commodity grain production of China; it belongs to the semi humid and semi-arid climate of temperate zone. The western and central regions are plain areas and they are the main grain producing areas of Jilin Province.This study uses meteorological data of spring maize in Jilin growing area from 1961 to 2015 based on 50 stations, in order to calculate the spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity based on AEZ model. Then photosynthesis-temperature and climatic potential productivity were obtained by correcting effective coefficient of temperature and water. This study analyses impact climatic factor has on spring maize potential productivity by establishing stepwise regression equation between potential productivity and various meteorological factors. The results were analyzed by ArcGIS software.The characteristics of this paper are mainly reflected: (1) The spring maize planting area of Jilin province was divided into 3 regions: western region, central region and eastern region; (2) Compared with results of AEZ in distribution and limiting factors by using dynamic statistic model to calculate photosynthesis, photosynthesis-temperature and climatic potential productivity.The main conclusions ars as follows:(1) Mean values of spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity in western、central and western region are: 24316kg/hm~2, 22180kg/hm~2 and 20587kg/hm~2; The distribution characteristics of photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity are similar, which shows decreasing trend from west to east. The spatial distribution of spring maize climatic potential productivity shows "increased-decreased-increased" trend. The largest climatic potential productivity is 14495 kg/hm~2 in central region. The climatic potential productivity is 10203kg/hm~2 in the western region and 13511kg/hm~2 in the eastern region. The change of photosynthesis potential productivity shows increasing trend year by year and 51% sites show significant rise especially in the western region. The change of spring maize climatic potential productivity shows decreasing trend and 68% sites show significant decline.(2) In 1961～2015,69% spring maize climatic potential productivity in Jilin province are affected by climate. The sites account for 82% of the total when taking precipitation as a significant factor. They are mainly distributed in western and central region. The sites account for 52% and 44% of the total when taking solar radiation and temperature as significant factors.They are mainly distributed in eastern region. So Precipitation is the main factor influencing spring maize climatic potential productivity in western region and central region; solar radiation is the main factor in eastern region, and the effect of temperature is smaller than that of solar radiation in eastern region.(3) Compared with the actual production and distribution of spring maize in 2014, the climatic potential productivity is 14417kg/hm~2 based on AEZ,which accounts for 51.29% of the actual production; the climatic potential productivity is 20098kg/hm~2 based on dynamic statistic model, which accounts for 36.79% of the actual production. High production areas are mainly distributed in Ji’an, Siping and Tonghua and so on; Low production areas are mainly distributed in Taonan, Tongyu and Changbai. The results of the two models are similar, which shows that they apply to calculate the spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity in Jilin and AEZ model is better.(4) Based on the prediction of temperature and precipitation in Northeast China, this study use stepwise regression equation to calculate the spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity in 2040 and the end of 21 st century. On the whole, the results fell. The results of western region and central region decline, while results of eastern region rise. |
