Analysis On The Research Of Potential Productivity Of Maize In Black Soil Region Of Heilongjiang Province

Based on the meteorological stations for24cities and counties of temperature andprecipitation date from1960-2010in black soil region of Heilongjiang Province,used ofmechanisms Act to calculate potential productivity of maize,used the linear trend line,Kriginginterpolation of ArcGis and so on,analysised on the characteristics of time and spacial for potentialproductivity of maize.analysised meteorologica factors and potential productivity of maize forcorrelation coefficient of Pearson.used binary linear regression equation to prediction for potentialproductivity of maize in the future. The results showed that:(1) The annual average teperature showed increasing trend in black soil region of HeilongjiangProvince,the change rate was0.36℃/10a,significantly higher than the national annual averagetemperature the change rate of0.22℃/10a,clearly heating in recent20years.the growing seasonaverage temperature showed increasing trend,the change rate was0.27℃/10a.the spatialdistribution of the annual average temperature,that gradually decreased from south to north.(2) The trend line of annual and growing season precipitation was no significantly changed inblack soil region of Heilongjiang Province in recent50years, however, the decadalfuctuations.1980s,1990s more precipitation,2000s significantly reduced.the spatial distribution ofthe annual precipitation of east better than west,study area of annual precipitation was467-593,growing season was407-492,basic meeted maize growth and development need.(3) Potential productivity of light-temperature of maize showed increasing trend in black soilregion of Heilongjiang,the change rate was367kg/hm2/10a,mean25201kg/hm2,significantlyincreased in recent20years,associated with increased temperature.spatial distribution of potentialproductivity of light-temperature of maize was consistent with the annual averge temperature.innorthern regions(Wudalianchi City,Nenjiang county,Beian City,Kedong County),temperature islow,,potential productivity of light-temperature of maize was small,variatic coefficient was big,poorstability.in southern regions(Shuangcheng City,Bin county,Lanxi county,Bayan County,HarbinCity),temperature is high,potential productivity of light-temperature of maize was great,variaticcoefficient was small,stability.spatial dfference tended to increase with the years.(4) The trend line of potential productivity of climate of maize was no significantly changed inblack soil region of Heilongjiang Provine in recent50years,however,the decadal fuctrations,1960sand1970s less the mean,1980s,1990s significantly increased,2000s significantly reduced and lestvalue,in southern regions(Wuchang City,Bayan County,Bin County),calorie resources is rich andsun-humid lands,conditons of Hydrothermal is good,potential productivity of climate of maize was great, variatic coefficient was small,stabity.in mid-west regions (Baiquan County, Kedong County,Mingshui County),the calorie resource is suitable and short of water, potential productivity ofclimate of maize was small,poor stability.spatial variation of1960s,1970s was smallerdefferences,1980s and1990s significant increased,2000s significant reduced, potential productivityof climate of maize stability in Wuchang City and Qingan County has always higher than10501kg/hm2in recent50years.(5) Temperature and potential productivity of light-temperature of maize,precipitation andpotential productivity of climate of maize，showed a significant positive correlation.temperature isthe main factor for limiting potential productivity of light-temperature of maize,water is the mainfactor for limiting potential productivity of climate of maize.(6) According to the1961-2010growing season temperature,precipitation and potentialproductivity of light-temperature and climate of maize to establishing a binary linear regressionequation,predicting to2030in black soil region of Heilongjiang Provine for potential productivityof light-temperature of maize will increase by8.73％, potential productivity of climate of maizewill decrease by5.18％.