An Empirical Study On The Impact Of H7N9 Influenza On Poultry Industry

The poultry industry is an important component of animal husbandry in China,making an important contribution to increase farmers' income, protect rural poultry products market supply and social stability. In recent years, with large-scale development of poultry in China, there is an increasing risk of highly contagious and highly pathogenic avian influenza disease incidence. Since 2004, the first case of H5N1 flu outbreak in the Chinese mainland, avian influenza outbreak took place in a small area. Frequent outbreaks of the avian flu epidemic has become one of the major problems afflicting the healthy development of poultry industry. Then how big is the impact of avian influenza on the poultry industry? Are the effects on Poultry farming, processing and marketing chain of different industries different? How to take the appropriate steps to to deal with the impact of avian influenza on poultry industry? There is an urgent issue on these subject in order to achieve stable poultry industry development, ensuring the effective supply of poultry products need.This paper made analysis of H7N9 outbreak effect on poultry industry through poultry products market(consumers), and poultry enterprise, and capital markets(investors) three dimension, and the affecting factors, Among them, which focus on effect of H7N9 outbreak on poultry industry capital markets performance based on event research method research,compared effect of outbreak on poultry industry of farming, and circulation, main conclusion following:(1) outbreak of H7N9 to whole poultry industry caused has significantly negative of effect, this negative effect is produced through three a dimension degrees interaction with poultry products market(consumers), and poultry enterprise, and capital markets(investors), on the poultry products market level, after consumers treating event of H7N9 outbreak as external factors, effect of event will quickly diffusion to whole industry,consumers' purchase intention of poultry products wishes declined, purchase behavior reduced, even looking for alternative products, ledding to flagging performance of the whole poultry products market; on poultry enterprise level, due to consumers of purchase wishes, and purchase frequency declined, sales performance of poultry enterprise, market share declined, and came with stiff financial targets; flagging performance on poultry market, and stiff financial targets will reduced investment enthusiasm of investors, caused shares of enterprise within the industry fell, returns rate declined, overall downturn of capital markets.(2) Although the outbreaks of H7N9 had impact on the whole poultry industry, but for different links, it had different effects. Among them, it had a significant negative impact on the poultry farming link; so had the poultry slaughtering and processing link, but its effect is weaker. In-depth analysis of the reasons, we found that H7N9 outbreaks impact serious directly on the poultry industry, causing huge economic losses to farmers. Poultry slaughter and poultry meat processing enterprises while also corresponding to the impact of the pandemic, but by means of adjusting the inventory, the enterprise can reduce the impact.(3) H7N9 impact serious on the poultry industry, which is caused by interaction of public opinion guidance, poultry production and slaughter management models, cold chain facilities, and industrial policy. construction of system related on poultry slaughter at designated points lag, and cold meat development slow, provides to convenience conditions H7N9 flu of occurred and popular; poultry scale farming development level not high, the "company + farmers" mode, also not formed effective way of interests shared, and risk,poultry production faced severe challenge; while, public opinion excessive rendering easy raised consumers panic, led to terminal needs insufficient; lack of policy poultry insurance against risk, all made the outbreak of H7N9 impact significant negative to entire poultry industry.(4) In order to deal with the huge negative effect of H7N9 on poultry industry, and promote stable health development of poultry industry, Government sector should strengthening opinion Guide, makes consumers rational treats H7N9 effect; active promote production business mode of "Sentinel slaughter, cold chain transport, ice fresh listed";established traceability system about poultry products quality and safety in our country;speed up the improvement of livestock insurance in our country.