Study On The Optimization Of Parking Transfer Path Based On Short-term Prediction Of Berth

With the rapid development of large cities in China,it is difficult to balance the traffic supply and the demand of private cars in urban core areas.Due to the influence of space and technology economy,urban core area can not increase traffic supply through large-scale road expansion and construction of parking lot.In order to alleviate this problem effectively,some cities have introduced the mode of the P&R in China.With the perfection of urban public transportation network,P&R will become an effective means to solve traffic congestion in urban center in the future.However,the utilization ratio of the Park and Ride facilities is low efficiency,and the phenomenon of heat and cold is uneven.There is often a case where there is no free parking space at the transfer station and the second seek is performed.In recent years,with the continuous construction of the Park and Ride facilities,how to improve the utilization rate of facilities and guide the traveler to choose a reasonable transfer station has become an urgent problem to be solved.This paper uses the traveler of the Park and Ride as the research object,based on the short-term forecast results of the parking berth,and the minimization of generalized travel cost as target to study the optimization method of the Park and Ride travel path.This paper analyzes the factors affecting the choice of parking and transfer travelers,and combines the domestic and international transfer facilities investigation and research results.It is determined that this paper uses the short-time berth prediction as the basis to study the path optimization method.By comparing and analyzing the short-time forecasting method of the effective berth of parking lot,the optimization of BP Neural Network by hybrid algorithm of artificial Bee Colony algorithm and LM algorithm is selected to predict the short-time of parking effective berth,and the effect of prediction is analyzed by an example.On this basis,the whole process of parking transfer travel is studied in sections to determine the parking and transfer station,private car travel path and public transportation route screening method.The generalized cost model of the whole travel process is constructed,and the travel time in the model is divided into travel time,walking time,waiting time,and the travel alternatives are further compared and the optimal scheme is obtained.At the same time,through the SP investigation of the users of the parking and transfer facilities to constructthe travel choice behavior model to quantify the various time values in the generalized cost model.Finally,based on the planning of Chongqing parking and transfer facilities,an example is given to illustrate the method and steps of parking and transfer optimal selection based on short-term prediction of berths.