The Risk Anailsis Of The Cost Of Construction Project Based On CIM-AHP Model And Combination Weighting Method

The project is risky because of various uncertainty factors in internal and external that is influenced during the project implementation.In the actual engineering case,many scholars have discussed the "three super phenomena",which covers the analysis of variables such as changing visa,spread adjustment to project management and external environment,this is largely because the managers lack of the awareness of project cost risk management or underestimated the project cost risk.In this paper,the domestic and foreign scholars in the cost of risk management and control theory on the basis of a systematic summary,through the construction unit perspective,combined with the basic theory of cost risk management and specific practical cases,the construction of the whole process of cost risk management research.Firstly,this paper summarizes the commonly used risk identification methods,chooses the combination of expert investigation method and WBS-RBS method as the main body,and then adds two kinds of auxiliary analysis methods to analyze the risk factors of project cost,And establish a risk assessment index system,all the risk indicators for a detailed analysis.Secondly,based on the uncertainty and fuzziness of construction cost risk analysis,a cost analysis model based on CIM-AHP is proposed.Combined with the combination weighting method of AHP and entropy method,according to the actual risk probability The value of each evaluation index is attached to the different risk level of the degree of certainty,and ultimately determine the project risk level.Thirdly,according to the risk of each stage of the construction period,the risk management strategy and the specific risk prevention measures are put forward.Finally,through the case analysis of the actual project of a villa,the improved AHP subjective weighting method and the entropy weight method objective weighting are used to carry out the comprehensive evaluation of the project cost risk,and the CIM calculation model is used to evaluate the risk factors of each stage.Carry out the risk warning of the project.The results of the risk assessment of the actual case cost fully reflect the adaptability and practicability of the evaluation model,which has certain reference value for the similar cost management of project cost.