Risk Early-Warning Model Of Power Transmission Network Based On Landslide Disaster

With the development of human society economy and science and technology,The construction of transmission network is developing in the direction of trans regional and long-distance,Large scale interconnection has become an inevitable trend in the development of transmission network.This trend has led to the increasing scale and complex structure of the transmission network,which makes the transmission network face many challenges of natural disasters.Landslide is a common geological disaster in the mountainous and hilly areas,which is a serious threat to the security of power transmission network in these areas.Therefore,the transmission network accidents caused by landslide disasters occur frequently.In order to dispose transmission network accidents caused by the landslide correctly,efficiently and rapidly,it is very important to study the early warning model of transmission network under the landslide disaster.This paper takes the transmission network in a certain area of Chongqing as the research object,using the matter element theory in extension theory,combined with the characteristics of the network topology structure of the transmission network,the early warning model,according to the landslide disaster,of the transmission network is established.The main research contents are as follows:(1)This paper analyzes and sums up the factors causing the disaster caused by landslide.Combined with the grid network topology characteristics and transmission network failure outage caused by the estimated losses,this paper constructs the landslide factors and characteristics of power grid and contains estimates of losses in 3 level indicators,11 level two indexes,23 level three indexes of transmission network early warning index system.At the same time,using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to calculate the weight of early warning index.(2)Based on the analysis of the complexity and difficulty of the transmission network,the warning level is divided into four levels.Based on the classification level,on the basis of data statistics,normative standards and references,this paper divides the alarm threshold value of each warning index of power transmission network under landslide disaster.(3)Application of extension evaluation of dynamic parameter model based on matter-element theory,construct the early warning model of transmission network of classical domains,domain and matter-element,through the correlation function calculation,the quantitative determination of the grid node warning level.Finally,the early warning level of the transmission network is determined according to the warning level of all the nodes of the transmission network.(4)According to the characteristics of power transmission network and the characteristics of power industry,the early warning,communication and response mechanism of power transmission network is established.Contains the alarm collection,collation and analysis process,signal transfer,path and object,scale,level and control of the police department and other content,minimize or avoid losses caused by accidents and influence.(5)The early warning model was applied to a region of Chongqing,the data were obtained through investigation,through early warning analysis and calculation,the results show that the warning level transmission network node number in the node three has 12 nodes,four level 9.The maximum correlation level node of the transmission network as the warning level of transmission network,the maximum correlation degree level of the transmission network node is three,so the transmission network warning grade three,grade three should take precautionary measures.The early warning model can be used to evaluate the safety of the power transmission network under the landslide disaster,and provide quantitative warning information for the power enterprises,which improves the power grid enterprises to cope with the accident response and handling capacity.