Research On Risk Early Warning Of Overhead Transmission Line Construction Security

As the 12th Five Year Plan is in progress in State Grid Corporation of China, the power transmission projects of ultrahigh voltage have received increased attention. The construction of overhead transmissions lines put forward higher requirements to the work of safety risk management. The construction of overhead transmissions lines as a high risk industry and frequent accidents lead to a serious threat to life safety of construction personnel poses for its strong power consumption demand, complex construction technology and the severity of the risk consequences. At present, the research on construction safety focuses on the risk management and the research on risk early warning is less. It is hard to meet the requirement of detecting security risks in advance for overhead transmission line engineering construction. So the research has important theoretical significance. In addition, the risk early warning for discovering potential accidents, handling the risk in advance, reducing accidents has important practical significance.Based on the reference to literatures of early warning in other industries, this essay further researches on the connotation, methods, principles and functions and introduces work flow of early-warning including defining alert-situation, looking for alert source, determining the warning signs and forecasting warning degrees to provide a theoretical framework for further research. Firstly, it is to analysis the alert-situation which need to identify the main accident types, and looking for alert source which put forward four types of personnels, objects, environment and management based on the accident causing theory and model. And then, this essay clearly puts forward construction principles of early warning indexs, builds the recognition model of warning signs information and analysis of five typical operations warning signs of overhead transmission line engineering.On the basis of the research results, combining with the literature research achievements and expert interviews,builds the preliminary design of early warning indicators from four aspects of personnels, objects, environment and management. Then, filter the preliminary indicators using Delphi method resulting in early warning index system.Finally, it is to divide alert degree and to determine the warning limit, respectively builds single index early warning model based on three exponential smoothing method and comprehensive multi-index warning model based on cloud model,through the numerical examples by Matlab to verify its application feasibility and effectiveness.This study aims to combine the early warning theory research of safety risk with the practical application of overhead transmission line engineering construction, providing the beneficial reference for risk early warning management of the power grid construction.