Comparative Analysis Of Urban Expansion Based On MCR Model And CA Model

With the development of the city,the speed of city expansion is accelerating.As per capital land use scarce resources,the expansion of the scale of city planning must be scientific and reasonable and the future direction of development,realize the sustainable development of the city.As a complex dynamic spatial system,the traditional model is difficult to predict the number and spatial distribution of urban land.Cellular Automata,a dynamic evolution function,combined with Geography Information System spatial analysis,spatial and temporal changes can well simulate the complex spatial geographic information process,make up for the traditional model.The Minimal Cumulative Resistance Model can reveal the relationship between landscape pattern and ecological process and function.At present,the two models are city expansion simulation results comparative analysis study in GIS-Logistic regression model making suitable parameter atlas based on the modified CA model,the city expansion is simulated by MCR model and CA model,then the simulation results of two models in comparative analysis.Simulation of urban expansion based on the Minimal Cumulative Resistance Model.First of all,on the basis of the principle and constitution of the minimum cumulative resistance model,the influence factors such as slope,elevation,highway,railway,main road,sub trunk road and river are analyzed.Secondly,the expansion of the source selection,with the help of Delphi method analysis to determine the single factor score and comprehensive weights,and then build a comprehensive resistance surface.Then,will study the use of natural breakpoint method according to the actual situation of area is divided into five suitability grades,respectively is suitable,suitable,less suitable and unsuitable,is not appropriate,according to the results of suitability zoning area statistics and evaluation of each grade.Finally,according to the speed of urban expansion,the urban construction land area is assumed,and the urban expansion in 2020 is simulated based on MCR model.It is found that the resistance value is lower in the central plain area of Wuhan City,the average resistance value is 358.89,and the resistance value is the biggest in the Hanjiang River and the famous scenic spot.The average resistance value is about 5485.94.It is suitable for the development and construction of an area of 218732.21 hectares,which is mainly distributed in the old city;It is not suitable for the development of the construction area are mainly distributed in the Wu lake,Zhangdu Lake,nine peaks of Forest Park in the city,South Lake and other coastal waters and the Hanjiang River scenic area,constitute ecological base of Wuhan metropolitan area,an area of 4706.38 hectares,proposed a ban on the development and construction.Based on the MCR model,the spatial distribution of urban expansion in 2020 was obtained,and the accuracy of the kappa coefficient was 0.7285,which could be used as a basis for the follow-up analysis and comparison of the results of the simulation.Urban expansion simulation based on CA model.Firstly,based on the Logistic regression model,the GIS-Logistic regression database is constructed,and the influence factors closely related to the evolution of urban space are selected as independent variables.Stratified random sampling method was used to select 7000 sample points which were evenly distributed in the study area,and the Logistic regression model was evaluated by SPSS software.Then,the mapping rules of CA model are modified by adding a suitable set of constraints to improve the simulation accuracy of Cellular Automata model.Finally,based on the modified CA model in 1996 as the starting year,2006 as the year end,simulation of the 2013 expansion of the city space changes,the simulation results and real data analysis,kappa coefficient is 0.8639,the simulation results with high precision.Keeping the model parameters and the transformation rules unchanged,the spatial distribution of urban expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area in 2020 was simulated and predicted.In order to test the simulation results of the comparative analysis,and the overall planning of the city land use simulation results,found that the expansion of construction land and some simulation results in this study are fit for the overall planning,both the eastern and western regions is more suitable for the northern area of urban construction land expansion.Comparative analysis of MCR model and CA model is conducted.According to the speed of urban expansion,it is assumed that the urban construction land area increased to 320000 HA in 2020,and the MCR model and CA model were compared and analyzed.MCR model simulation results kappa coefficient 0.7285,CA model simulation results kappa coefficient is 0.8639.The results show that the CA model is more accurate than the MCR model.MCR model simulation of a group of city expansion based on aggregation phenomenon is more obvious,the application to the appropriate zoning,often appear in the propagation direction of the extended source surrounded by the trend of distribution is relatively fixed,but the model pays more attention to ecological factors.Under the condition of ecological factors,the CA model has a better simulation of the details,and the results are more specific,but in a certain extent,the expansion is affected by lakes,Hanjiang River,Yangtze River and other waters.Comparing the two models showing some similarities,the overall space research area expansion trend in the 2006 construction land on the basis of expanding to the surrounding areas;between 2006 and 2013,Qingshan District around East Lake is a clear development direction of city expansion.Through the comparative analysis of the two models is conducive to reasonable city planning,to deepen the two city expansion model understanding,thereby reducing the impact of human factors in the process of city planning,to avoid blindness,so as to ensure the sustainable development of the city and the ecological environment,make city planning more scientific and reasonable.