Study On The Impact Of Bad Weather On Dalian Residents’ Travel Mode Choice Behavior

With the continuous development of China’s national economy,the number of motor vehicles in urban residents is also rising,that leads to the problem of road traffic congestion which has become increasingly serious.In order to alleviate the traffic pressure in large cities,it is a common topic for traffic managers and researchers to carry out scientific and reasonable traffic planning and traffic demand forecasting.One of the key contents of urban traffic demand forecasting is the residents’ travel mode choice behavior.However,the former research regarding travel mode choice behavior mainly focuses on three types of variables which are traveler characteristics variables,travel characteristics variables,and travel characteristics variables.And it is easy to overlook the changes of residents’ travel structure(such as the opening of a new subway line),and external macroeconomic factors(such as weather)effects on it.This paper will start from the above two factors to study the travel mode choice behavior of Dalian residents.First,use the method of SP survey to collect data.Through the establishment of Binary Logit model,this paper analyzes the influence of the opening of Dalian Metro Line 1 on the public transit choice behavior of urban residents.According to the model results,the demand of subway is quite large.The proportion of different groups of people choosing subway in different scenarios is mostly more than a half.The immature new subway line facing the condition of large capacity should improve the metro operation efficiency in terms of transfer time,frequency,waiting time and fares,and constantly promote the development of urban public transit,so as to improve the traffic congestion situation.Secondly,under the background of the opening of the new subway line,the travel mode choice model considering snowfall impact is established.This survey is only for the long distance commuter trip,so only bus,subway,taxi and private car are taken into consideration,and walking and bicycle are not included.According to the estimation results of model parameters,analysis shows that the selection proportion of the subway will increase on snowy days.The reason is that the subway is the least affected travel mode among all four alternatives.In addition,the selection proportion of taxi will increase on snowy days,while the selection proportion of bus and private cars will decrease accordingly.Finally,on the basis of the previous model,we extend the range of snowfall factors,and study the influence of different weather impact on the travel mode choice behavior.A Mixed Logit model was established to analyze how the change of weather will influence the travel mode choice behavior.The results of the data analysis show that under the influence of bad weather,the proportion of the subway is the highest among the four travel modes.And for subway,the selection proportion on snowy days is the highest in all weather conditions.For different weather conditions,the change of the selection proportion of different travel modes is not the same.Only the proportion of the taxi will grow slowly with the increasing severity of various weather conditions.