Research On Risk Analysis Of Construction Progress Based On Auto-correlation Of Risk Factors

As one of the three major objectives of engineering project management,schedule plays an important role in project management.Due to the nature of the openness and complexity of the engineering construction environment,the project implementation process is often influenced by uncertain factors during the implementation process,which leads to the delay of construction.Therefore,it is crucial to analyze the risk factors that affect the construction progress.The traditional schedule risk analysis method fails to include the correlation among risk factors comprehensively.Which leads to the implementation of the construction progress deviating from the objective.The DEMATEL method makes analysis of the systemic factors using graph theory and the theory of matrices,which quantifies the correlation among different risk factors effectively in the field of sociology,economics and ecology.Therefore,the DEMATEL method is of great value to explore the in engineering field.Based on the research of the current situation of construction schedule risk analysis,this paper starts from the source of risk analysis,and takes the risk factor as the research object,establishes simulation model of engineering project procedure and duration,and uses JAVA language for programming simulation.Through deep analysis of the risk factor correlation theory,it introduces DEMATEL method and considers the auto-correlation of risk factors.Based on the comprehensive influence on matrix of risk factors,it adds unit matrix to make improvement.The method of random number generator is utilized to simulate the probability of the occurrence of risk factors,In order to obtain the condition of risk factors through comparison with the expectation.It adopts analytic hierarchy process to quantify the impact of risk factors on the working procedure and duration,thereby simulating the whole schedule of the entire engineering project.It also analyzes the distribution probability of the critical path of the progress plan and the key risk factors influencing the project schedule,so as to control the construction progress effectively.In order to study the influence of risk factors auto-correlation on the project schedule,this paper analyzes the risk factors of the schedule through a case study of a workshop and utilizes the simulation model of working procedure and duration.The analytical results of the case reveals that the simulation model of working procedure and duration proposed in this paper not only obtains the total duration distribution of the project,but also gain access to the distribution probability of progress plan critical path and key risk factors as the computed results were close to the actual total duration,which verifies the validity of the risk factors auto-correlation analysis method.The results of this study provide a calculation model for project managers to predict the total duration of the engineering project,and offer the basis for project managers to estimate project completion time from different risk tendencies,as well as help project managers to develop flexible progress management programs and more targeted risk handling measures,so as to ensure the effective implementation of the schedule.