Study On Management Of Unexpected Incidents And Pedestrian Evacuation Simulation In Urban Rail Transit

Urban rail transit has many advantages, such as high punctuality rate, large traffic volume, safety and fast speed and environmental protection, playing an important role in alleviating urban traffic congestion. However, urban rail transit has also become a major target of terrorist attacks. In recent years, especially in foreign countries, vicious unexpected incidents occurred frequently in urban rail transit, posing serious threats to people's life, property and safety and giving important warnings for operation safety of urban rail transit in China. Given all that, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance for this thesis to conduct an in-depth study on management of unexpected incidents and pedestrian evacuation simulation in urban rail transit.(1) Based on the principles of knowledge element (or KE, for short) and epidemic dynamics, a SIS-KE evolution model of unexpected incidents in urban rail transit is built. With the ideas of knowledge element, the author builds the knowledge element model of urban rail transit system; analyzes similarities between the evolution of unexpected incidents in urban rail transit and the transmission of SIS epidemic model,and builds the SIS-KE evolution model (which contains two parameters, i.e. emergency response efficiency a and damage ratio of unexpected incidents ?) of unexpected incidents in urban rail transit based on the SIS model. In addition, the author uses Simulink to conduct analog computing and comparative analysis of different values of? and ?, so as to reveal the evolution mechanism of unexpected incidents in urban rail transit and to verify effectiveness of the evolution model with examples.(2) From the perspective of emergency response capability and effectiveness, the author builds the network layout model of emergency resources and conducts example analysis. Target optimization is conducted from four aspects, namely station coverage,relief time, number of layout points and construction cost, and the layout model of emergency resources is built; then, the genetic algorithm is designed according to characteristics of independent variables and target function for solution; finally, the software Matlab is adopted to program target function and genetic algorithm for solving the network layout model of emergency resources in urban rail transit, and comparative study on emergency resources layout is carried out from two aspects, i.e. road transport and rail transport.(3) The author designs emergency evacuation plans for the scenario of terrorist bombing in urban rail transit and uses Anylogic to build the simulation system for case study. Based on studies on basic physical properties of the station, scenario analysis is carried out from three dimensions, namely time, place and explosive equivalent of the terrorist attack. Pedestrian emergency evacuation plans for the whole subway station under two scenarios, i.e. explosives occurred at either end of the station and in the middle of the station, are designed and the Anylogic software is adopted for simulating,so as to find approaches to optimization of evacuation plans.