| Groundwater Source Heat Pump(GWSHP)is a new technology to use geothermal energy,which is economic,energy saving and environmental protection,but its initial investment is relatively large,so its development and promotion is more difficult.In order to promote the development of the GWSHP system,this paper starts with its cost-effective composition and calculation,and then uses the Vesim-PLE software tool and the system theory to construct the life-cycle cost-benefit model of the GWSHP system.And the GWSHP project of a residential district in Lanzhou City of Gansu Province is taken as the object of empirical research.The long-term simulation and analysis of its cost-effectiveness are made.The main research results are as follows:(1)Analyzes the cost and benefit composition and calculation methods of the GWSHP system.The life cycle cost of the GWSHP system consists of three parts: initial investment,annual operating cost and disposal cost.The benefits are composed of energy efficiency,energy saving efficiency and other benefits.And put forward the calculation formula of its cost-effectiveness is discussed respectively.(2)A cost-benefit model of the GWSHP system based on system dynamics is constructed.Based on the interaction between the various factors influencing the cost of the GWSHP system,the causal relationship diagram of the initial investment,the annual operating cost and the disposal cost is established.Based on this,the life cycle cost causality diagram of the GWSHP system is established.Secondly,based on the interaction between the various factors influencing the benefit of the GWSHP system,the life cycle benefit causality diagram of the GWSHP system is established.After the cost and benefit causality diagram,the life cycle cost-effectiveness of the GWSHP system is established.Then,based on this,the system flow diagram of the whole life cycle cost-effectiveness system of the GWSHP is constructed and the structural equation is constructed to quantify the interrelationship among the elements.Finally,some important tests are carried out on the model.(3)Conducts empirical studies,and the model was used to simulate and analyze and some results are obtained.Based on the actual situation of the residential district of the GWSHP in Lanzhou,the parameters in the model are determined,according to the actual situation to determine the parameters of the model and conduct the test,and then the model is run to simulate and analyze.The simulation results are: standing at a social point of view(taking the benefits of emission reduction into account),the project only needs 7.031 years to recover the cost,even if considering the time value of the funds is only 9.315 years;but standing in the district and the owner’s position(without regarding to the reduction of emissions),it takes 12.181 years to fully recover the cost,If you consider the time value of the funds will need 18.678 years.Although the early investment of the system is large,but the benefits are also considerable.Although the system’s early investment is large,but the operating costs will be balanced reduction during use,from the perspective of the whole life cycle,it is cost-effective,and the benefits are considerable. |
