Estimation Method Of Three-parameter Weibull Distribution Applied To Wind Speed

Affected by wind speed variation,wind energy is random,intermittent and uncontrollable.Therefore,studying the distribution of wind speed,selecting the appropriate wind speed probability distribution model and estimating the correct model parameters is of great significance to the use of wind power.This paper focuses on the wind speed probability distribution model and the estimation of model parameters.As a common model of wind probability distribution,two-parameter Weibull distribution is less accurate in the estimation of low-probability wind speed,therefore,this paper proposes a new model: three-parameter Weibull distribution.The model parameters of the three-parameter Weibull distribution are estimated using grey estimation,maximum likelihood estimation,linear regression estimation and moment estimation.According to the wind speed data of two wind power plant in Yunnan,this paper uses the three-parameter Weibull distribution as the model of local wind probability distribution and uses the above four methods to estimate the parameters of the model,then draw the charts of wind speed probability distribution.At last,this paper uses the two-parameter Weibull distribution and the three-parameter Weibull distribution as the model of local wind probability distribution in all year and estimates the parameters of two models.This paper has the following conclusions: When grey estimation and maximum likelihood estimation are used,the three-parameter Weibull distribution is reasonable as a model of wind probability distribution.In the region of low-probability wind speed,the three-parameter Weibull distribution is more accurate than the two-parameter Weibull distribution.