The Research Of The Warship-damage Assessment Based On Bayesian Networks

The Warship-Damage Assessment is an important foundation work for the utilization of the guided missile weapon, and it is also the an important part of evaluation of combat effctiveness. At the same time, it provides some reference for whether to carry on follow-up stroke or not, how to choose weapon and how to draw up a stroke plan. But the Warship-Damage Assessment is a very complicated problem. The organization of warship system is complex. There are many branches in one warship system, and every branch is composed of some sub-systems and the equipments. The relationship among branches in every warship system is very complicated. There are many indeterminate and indistinctive information during the decision process.Bayesian Networks is the approach that can be used to reason and analyze data in the complex system access to probabilistic method theory. This method can find defective structures by graph theory, and then analyze this defective structures by reasoning computation from probability. Finally accurate conclusion can be obtained clearly. Bayesian Networks can get indeterminate factor in the complicated system.For Bayesian Networks is an effective approach to cope with indeterminate information,this paper investigate assessment method of damage effect about warship access to Bayesian Networks. The prime task and the content in this article can be concluded as follows:(1) The foundational probabilistic theory of Bayesian networks has been discussed.The rationality and feasibility of Bayesian network in processing indefinite information has been proved by practical examples.(2)According to the analysis of probability of hitting the ship by missile, use the method of Monte Carlo to simulate the test of antiship missile many times,by making detailed statistical analysis about the result data. Then get the number of hitting times and the probability of hitting about each cabin of target ship.(3) Make use of the software of ABAQU to analyze the blast in a simple model of cabins,and three typical positions of ship model, then get the environment data about the cabins.According to these, evaluate the damage of cabins, through summarizing of the rule of the damage in the cabins, getting the importation information of damage regulation, as input information of the Bayesian Networks.(4) By analyzing of the function structure of the warship ship to divide the ship into different system and equipments, use of the Bayesian software of GeNIe to set network nodes one by one. According to the relation of each node, to establish Bayesian Networks structure.According to the two different kinds of work relation, adopting different methods to certain the status of combines about the nodes. Then completed the establishment of the Bayesian Networks of the Warship-Damage Assessment.Finally, make use of the Bayesian Networks to drawn the inferences finely about all conditions of warship mode and get the whole table of all status of Warship-Damage. And according to the probability of happening of each condition,deduce the whole probability of Warship-Damage about the warship assaulted by the missile, and realize the quantitative assessment of the power of the missile.