Simulation Research On Terminal Area Airspace Capacity Based On Evidence Theory

For the scientific and comprehensive research on the terminal area airspace capacity,this For the scientific and comprehensive research on the terminal area airspace capacity,based on the simulation of the terminal area airspace,this paper used the theory of evidence to study the capacity of the terminal area synthetically.This method is more comprehensive,scientific and objective than the traditional methods.Based on the AirTOp simulation platform,the airspace in the terminal area of Chongqing is simulated,and the factors affecting the airspace capacity of the terminal area are analyzed.Four different types of airspace operation performance indicators were chose to be the study subjects,including the terminal airspace flow index,flight operation efficiency index,flight operation Safety indicators and controller workload indicators.Concerning about the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flight flow,simulated for several times as the simulation fight plan generational grew,the simulation flight plans were 100%,103%,105%,108%,110%,115% and 120%.According to the simulation of the terminal area airspace outputs,calculated five airspace operation indicators,which are the maximum hourly traffic flow in the terminal area,the average delay time of the flight,the maximum flying time of the flight,the potential conflict coefficient,and the maximum value of the sector control workload.Through the study of the evidence theory modeling principle,took the maximum hourly traffic flow in the terminal area as the identification frame,and took the average delay time of the flight,the maximum flight time of the flight,the maximum flight time of the flight,the potential conflict coefficient,and the maximum value of the sector control workload as four evidences.The airspace capacity of the terminal area was studied by using the D-S evidence combination rule and the weighted allocation synthesis rule respectively.As a result,the fusion probability of the terminal area airspace capacity of 60 sorties was the highest,which were 0.6048 and 0.2788.The terminal area airspace hourly capacity reference value is60 sorties per hour.This paper mainly did the research on the problem of the capacity of the terminal area,summarizing the problem of the airspace capacity of the terminal area as an uncertain multi-attribute decision-making problem,which fundamentally changed the solving methods of the capacity assessment problem.This method took different airspace operation performance indexes into consideration to get a comprehensive result of the problem of capacity of the terminal airspace,which is a good method to improve the single solving mood of capacity evaluation model.At the end of the paper,some possible improvement measures and directions are put forward.