Study On Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Optimal Allocation In Xuancheng Based On Cloud Model

The water resources in Anhui Province are unevenly distributed in spatiotemporal distribution,the per capita water resources is relatively small,and the water pollution in partial area is serious,and water-saving consciousness is weak and the utilization rate of reclaimed water is low.Water resources has become a bottleneck and a key factor in the development of national economy.This paper takes Xuancheng as an example to discuss and study the water resources carrying capacity and optimal allocation of water resources in Xuancheng,so as to provide suggestions for the sustainable development and utilization of local water resources.Based on Xuancheng water resources comprehensive planning,Xuancheng water resources bulletin and Anhui statistical yearbook,18 evaluation indexes were selected from four aspects: water resources system,ecological environment system,social system and economic system.According to the level of evaluation and experience of the relevant literature,three numerical features of the cloud model of each index :Ex,En and He were determined by trial and calculation,and the water resources carrying capacity evaluation model of Xuancheng was established based on the cloud model.By AHP method and entropy weight method,using the forward CG to obtain the membership degree in each grade of Xuancheng from 2010 to 2015,and obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of annual water resources carrying capacity.And compare the results with the results of the osculating values method.The conclusion shows that the results of the cloud model and the osculating values method are basically the same,which shows that the cloud model evaluation has good applicability and credibility.According to the maximum membership degree principle,the carrying capacity of water resources in Xuancheng belongs to grade Ⅳfrom 2010 to 2015,which is good bearing capacity.Which shows that the water resources carrying capacity of Xuancheng is relatively stable and maintained at a good level in recent years,and there still has some potential for utilization and bearing capacity.Rich water resources,high vegetation coverage and greening rates of Xuancheng,and the increase of unilateral water production efficiency year by year(the decrease of water consumption per unit of GDP)are favorable to the increase of water resources carrying capacity.However,accelerated urbanization,large farmland irrigation quota and per capita water consumption has been brought greater pressure to the water resources carrying capacity.This paper use the cloud model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Xuancheng,and combine the fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation grade to realize the quantitative and qualitative conversion,to make the result more reasonable.Based on the principle of sustainable development,set the corresponding constraints,select water efficiency of the life,industry,agriculture,tertiary industry and ecological environment for multi-objective.Water allocation model is established based on multi-objective optimization of Xuancheng,the fgoalattain function in the box solves the model by calling Matlab optimization tool.Six kinds of schemes were obtained through different decision-making tendency,and the water characteristics of each water department were analyzed,which provided the decision-making basis for the optimization of regional water resources utilization efficiency.