| Urban rail transit tickets are generally divided into fixed tickets and recoverable tickets,recoverable tickets mainly refer to single journey tickets.Due to the imbalance of passenger flow,the tickets of some stations continue to increase,while some gradually reduce.To ensure the daily operation,it is necessary to supply and recycle the tickets of each station and each line regularly,thus to realize the equilibrium of the tickets among network.At present,the management of operating enterprise on single journey tickets is extensive.With the problem of low efficiency of tickets transfer and high cost,this paper aims to improve the efficiency of ticket delivery,reduce the delivery cost and provide theory and method support for ticketing organizations.Based on the analysis of the current situation of ticket management,the paper establishes the forecasting model of the ticket card demand and builds the model and algorithm of tickets dispatching.The main contents are as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the present situation of storing,allocating and dispatching of the tickets.Based on the actual data tickets sale,the paper studies the changing characteristics of ticket demand,the usage proportion,the loss amount,the unworked and the dispatching amount,etc.From the angle of qualitative and quantitative,this paper summarizes the current principle of single journey tickets transfer in Beijing rail transit,and points out the main problems in the management of tickets.Secondly,this paper constructs the combined prediction model of single journey tickets.The short-term prediction method is formulated for the usage,usage proportion and the dispatching amount of the single journey ticket in a certain period of time.The combined prediction model includes The Wavelet Analysis and Time Series Analysis combined model and The Wavelet Analysis and Kalman Filtering combined model.The prediction of single journey tickets can estimate the potential use of the tickets for a certain period of time.When the inter-line dispatching cannot meet the demand for the tickets,the network ticketing center will order new tickets from the tickets manufacturer in advance.Finally,this paper deeply researches the problem of tickets dispatching at the network level,namely the dispatching between ACC and LC.As a result,this paper improves the present VRPSPD model(Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Pickup and Delivery)in order to realize the purpose that each customer node can be used as a secondary delivery center.And it builds a tickets delivery model with the aim of minimizing the transportation cost.The genetic algorithm is also designed to solve the model.Taking the urban rail transit in Beijing as an example for empirical analysis,the result shows that compared with the direct delivery scheme,the transport cost is reduced by around 40%.Compared with the existing VRPSPD model,the transport cost is reduced by around 15%,which verifies the accuracy and validity of the model. |
