The Difference Of Winter Monsoon And Summer Monsoon And Its Influence On Wind Power Forecast

In order to analyze the influence of summer monsoon and winter monsoon on the wind power forecast in China,we analyze the causes of the prediction error of wind power in China meteorologically,compare with countries abroad where wind power prediction is developed well,and find the meteorological origin of accuracy difference between them.The characteristics of winter monsoon and summer monsoon are analyzed and compared by using chaotic method.We employ the arc-tangent function transformation to enhancing performance of wavelet threshold denoising in processing and analyzing of wind speed data;establish a more precise function between the atmospheric wind speed and the mechanical rotational speed of generator in which the mechanical moment of inertia of generator is taken account.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)In order to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power in China reliably,the meteorological origin of the prediction error of wind power in China is sought from the global distributions of wind speed and sea level pressure.It proves the effect of monsoon in China.We notice that the Mongolia high pressure not only is the cause of the winter monsoon,but also affected northern no-monsoon region of our country where wind energy are sufficient.(2)The historical data analysis of global geopotential height,sea level pressure,the surface vector wind speed distribution monthly for nearly 30 years and the year 2014 show that: compared with the European countries where wind power forecasting are developed well,such as the Netherlands,we face the fact that atmospheric circulation and air condition is relatively complex,through the analysis of the wind speed time series,we can explain the reasons for differences in short-term wind speed forecasting precision.(3)The differences of winter monsoon and summer monsoon are analyzed by Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy.The correlation dimension and maximum Lyapunov exponent are used to analysis the difference quantitatively in theory,and the characteristics of the two time series are described.(4)In processing of wind speed data,we apply the arc-tangent function transformation,one of low-order nonlinear transformations,to improve wavelet threshold denoising.By this way the accuracy and robustness are both increased in the experiment.We suggest that establish a more precise function between the atmospheric wind speed and the mechanical rotational speed of generator,in which the mechanical moment of inertia of generator is taken account.This function can provide more accurate converting accuracy between atmospheric wind speed and active power output of generator.