Wind Speed Prediction Method For Wind Power Forecasting At Sea And Study Of Wind Speed Statistics In Sea-land Interface

With the rapid growth of wind power installed capacity, some drawbacks of wind power are increasingly emerging. The rapid growth of wind power network may seriously affect the operation of the power quality and power system. Accurate prediction of wind velocity will provide strong support for wind power prediction, wind power access network and the wind power industry development. But the recent study of wind farm’s wind velocity forecasting still can not satisfy our demand. In this context, wind speed forecast used for wind farm power prediction was chosen as contents of this paper and model output statistics method was adopted to fit the wind speed prediction equation. This paper studied and explored this academic field.First, the pretreatment and study of statistical rules of anemometer towers’measured parameters was done. Using meteorological data of two coastal land anemometer towers in Jiangsu Province plus one alongshore sea anemometer tower in Fujian Province, daily&monthly variation discipline and profile features of temperature, wind velocity and turbulence intensity in these three places were analyzed, also, characteristic differences resulted by two different underlying surfaces were discussed Some useful conclusions were achieved.Then, the implementation process of model output statistics method was described in detail. Using output numerical prediction products of MM5model, measured meteorological data of two sea wind towers in coastal areas of Fujian and stepwise regressive MOS statistical method, short-term&ultra-short-term wind speed on top layer of these two towers were forecasted with both MM5numerical prediction factors and measured wind tower factors being introduced into the regression equation which was a different choice from before. Based on forecasting performance metrics in one year and inspection of the forecast last15days, the result shows:a high degree of accuracy of wind speed was got using this method. Ultra-short-term wind speed prediction equation fit better than the short-term wind speed prediction equation. This method has higher value of promotion and continuing in-depth study, and the results have practical significance&application value.