Research On The Urban Development Scale Based On Water Resource Carring Capacity

Urban is the center of the regional political, economic and cultural activity, the leading role of urban for regional development is apparent. Urban is highly aggregated openning systems on population and industry, urban development needs the support of the regional resources especially local resources and environmental support. It has become an important scientific propositions that the research of resource carrying capacity of urban and the discussion on urban scale adapted to local resources and environment.In this paper, the megacity of scarcity of water resources——Xi’an city as the research object, the water resources carrying capacity and its problems were analyzed by building an evaluation system for water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of its natural environment and natural resources, socio-economic development and water resource utilization. The urban scale under water bearing of Xi’an city were estimated through predictive analytics and scenario analysis on water resources and production, life and ecology. The conclusions were as follows:(1) Through the analysis of social and economic development and water resources development and utilization nearly 10 years in Xi’an City, the following characteristics are summed up:The total GDP continued to increase, the proportion of tertiary industry increased significantly, urban built-up area expanded rapidly, water supply capacity increased volatility, and total water use increased steadily.(2) Through theoretical analysis and practical summarization, water resources carrying capacity evaluation system of 4 aspects and 17 indicators were established which included water resources, production, living and ecological environment.(3) Water resources carrying capacity of Xi’an city were obtained by comparing six similar cities Xi’an, Zhengzhou, Taiyuan, Shijiazhuang, Lanzhou, Yinchuan through using comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of entropy method. The Characteristics of water resources carrying capacity of Xi’an city included high water resources carrying capacity, high load carrying capacity in production consuming, moderate carrying capacity in life-consumingl and low carrying capacity of ecological water-deficient. The main problems water resources carrying capacity in Xi’an include shortage of water resources and low level of water reuse, co-exist of production of large consumption and lower reuse of water in production, and weak saving of water in life and less than normal of ecological water and so on.(4) By using the method of second moving average and scenario analysis, the population numbers of Xi’an city were estimated at 4.67-6.62million and 5.95-7.78 million in 2020 and 2030 that water could carry as the main demand in life under different scenarios based on the water resources demand of ecological environment and production development.(5) On the basis of population estimation on water resources carrying, according to the per capita land allotment, the scale of urban land of Xi’an city will be 817km2 and 946km2 at 2020 and 2030.(6) The strategies and measures were proposed that increase water quantity, save water resource and optimize water resources.