The Investment Estimate Of EPC Architectural Project

As an important preparation for the pre-project phase,the investment estimate is not only related to the smooth progress of the project,but also to measure key elements of the project with reference to economic viability.Especially for the owners a fixed contract price of the EPC architectural project in terms of investment as an upper limit estimate will tender,the contractor is none other tender basis,its accuracy will directly affect the degree of utilization of financial resources and construction investment control in subsequent phases.This paper describes the main methods to estimate EPC architectural project investment,research trends and the main existing problems,it introduces the theory of gray fuzzy and Monte Carlo simulation.In this paper,an estimate of Investment EPC architectural project is divided into two phases,the first phase is to collect similar items of technical and economic indicators,through the Duncan correlation fuzzy clustering algorithm to calculate unit cost of construction of the new EPC architectural project.According to the relevant norms and the valuation documents to calculate other costs to form the initial total investment estimate.The second phase is to consider the uncertainty of the eight expenses,such as construction cost and equipment purchase cost,and use the Monte Carlo simulation method based on Beta-PERT distribution to optimize the initial estimation value according to the accuracy of preliminary feasibility study and to obtain the total investment range and magnitude of change.Finally,through a case study of a farmer resettlement housing project,the total investment calculated by the above investment estimation method is more close to the traditional investment estimate approved by the NDRC,which proves that the proposed method is effective and scientific to prevent the total investment out of control.