Research On A Decision Making Model Of Sustainable Safety And Development Of The Airports

The put forward of the concept of sustainable safety, which puts higher requirements to whole civil aviation. Airport, as an important part of civil aviation, currently, the airports managers pay more attention to the development of airports and ignore their commitment and responsibility of safety to handle the sustainable growth demand of passenger and freight volume. This will leads to the shortage of the airport's support capacity, the airport congestion and the frequent happening of unsafe incidents and accidents, which will hinder the development of the airport and results to the incoordination between safety and development.To explore the interaction and the dynamic development mechanism of an airport safety operation, and to predict and analyze its future development state, so as to take reasonable measures to guarantee sustainably and stably the operation of airport, we need to make a deep research and analysis of the airport operation system structure and interaction mechanism of the internal factors.The operation development and safety of airport involves many complex variables with complex interaction, and it is a dynamical and complex feedback system. System dynamics is a good choice to study such issues. Applying systems theory, and based on the analysis of airport sustainable safety and development and dynamical and complex feedback mechanism between safety and development, we conduct our system archetype by selecting the “Growth and Underinvestment” model. The on the basis of causality feedback loop analysis of system major factors and variables, by using the software tool of VENSIM PLE, we establish a casual loop diagram and a flow diagram of the system. Thereupon then, a system dynamics model of airport sustainable safety and development is established.We take “C” airport as a case to study the model. With the objective and actual data of“C” airport, we make assignment and correction of model parameters, and the test on the model. The simulation results show that: the support capability of “C” airport will basically reached saturation by 2015 and the safety state is out of range, which hinder the development of the airport. So measures should be taken to coordinate the problem between safety and development. By adjusting the operation objective growth rate and safety goal, we set up three decision scheme: balanced growth, positive growth and basic simulation. The simulationresults show that: airport operational objectives and safety goals can change the future development way of airport; the balanced growth scheme could help manager to coordinate the relation between safety and development,and achieve sustainable growth, so it is more suitable to change the future development mode of airport; With the positive growth scheme,manager invests more in operation than in safety, and achieve the growth in the short term, but finally the safety state is not good and the development is hindered. The three schemes give managers the basis of making decision. The balanced growth scheme should be taken, and we should not only care for immediate benefits.