Research On The Prognostic Technology Of Flight Control System For Civil Aircraft

As flight control system of aircraft is a critical airborne system, its operation affects directly the aviation safety and aircraft operating economics. Therefore, research of prognostic technology for the flight control system is very necessary. Prognostic on the system and its components contributes to improve the arrangement of aircraft maintenance activities, which can reduce the cost of aircraft operations and increase the efficiency of maintenance.By analyzing the Prognostics and Health Management(PHM) technology of Boeing and Airbus, integrating current specific needs and data limitations of airlines, this paper establishes a prognostic model for the flight control system, which combines a pre-analysis based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation FMECA and a quantitative life prediction based on the statistical reliability. FMECA method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation can effectively analyze the failure mode, impact and risk for the parts of flight control system, and get a quantitative risk value. For the parts with a higher degree of risk, analysis their statistical reliability is necessary. By choosing the most suitable distribution for the part, correspondent reliability functions and Mean Time to Failure after the parameter estimation and fitting test. Based on the ERJ-190 fleet operational data, the model is verified and many flight control system parts suit the three-parameter Weibull distribution with a good fitting result. The Mean Time to Failures and the risk value of the parts provide numerical basis to determine maintenance intervals and optimize the tasks of aviation maintenance.