Study On The Risk Assessment Of The Cruise Line Operation Regarding Xiamen As The Homeport

The cruise line operation is a complex system which has a high requirement of specialization.It contains routes design,service capacity allocation,ticket sales,outsourcing management,supplies purchasing and so on.The cruise line operation involves many variable factors which make the operation easily be affected by the economic crisis,oil price fluctuations,disease,terrorist activities and other risks.Therefore,it is of important significance to find an appropriate way to assess the risk of the cruise line operation.Firstly,this paper studied the present research status of the cruise industry,reviewed the knowledge about risk assessment in domestic and foreign,and briefly introduced related theory about cruise lines operation.All these paved the way for the following research.Then,used the method of PEST to analyze the operation situation of homeport cruise routes in Xiamen,and pointed out the main problems.Based on the characteristics of the cruise line operation,combined using the Flow Chart Method and Risk List Method to identify risks.Classified and analyzed them.So a preliminary evaluation index system was built.With the expert questionnaires,the final evaluation index system was established.Thirdly,combined with the actual situation,and by comparing some risk assessment methods,the paper established a reasonable risk model which used the AHP to determine weight coefficients,used the whitening weight function to get grey fuzzy weight matrix and finally used the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to calculate value at risk.Part of the calculation process was completed with MATLAB toolbox which ensured the accuracy.Finally,combined with an example,the paper verified the model built above was effective and reasonable.According to the results of risk assessment,the paper put forward some measures to avoid the risks.This research not only can provide technical support for developing Xiamen homeport cruise line,but also can help solve the problem of the operation risk prevention in the operation of domestic cruise liner companies.The results can provide technical support for developing domestic cruise homeport routes as well as risk assessment of the native cruise companies.