Research On The Anhui Power Grid Fault Forewarning Based On The Meteorological Information

With the fast development of power system and the increase of strong convection weather, transmission line faults caused by bad weather occurred frequently, which seriously threats the safe and reliable operation of the power grid. Lightning occurs quickly and changes fast. The power grid fault statistics include a high proportion of lightning faults. Under strong winds, lines will be skewed even occur windage yaw flashover which always reclose unsuccessfully. Kinds of natural disasters, especially a wide-range adverse weather, damage the transmission line more abominably than the electrical accidents. So the research on the power grid fault forewarning based on the meteorological information has important significance. This paper conducts a forewarning study on Anhui power grid fault based on the meteorological information, especially on the fault caused by lightning and strong winds, and proposes a power grid static security risk assessment model in the view of the meteorological effect.Considering the characteristics of lightning and taking the use of real-time lightning monitoring data, identify the lightning subareas by the image recognition technology. Then forecast the subareas by calculating the optimal trajectory of lightning subareas based on the information at three adjacent time interval. At the same time, obtain the tower lightning probability according to statistic results of Anhui lightning historical data. On this basis, combined with the calculation methods of transmission line lightning trip, calculate the predicting transmission line lightning trip probability within the forecasted lightning subareas and realize the lightning fault forewarning. The results show that, the method proposed has higher precision of lightning subareas forecast. The line trip probability also has higher precision and could be used as the lightning warning index.Analyze the composition of wind and simulate the dynamic wind. Basing on the geometry method, calculate the windage under static wind and dynamic wind separately. Results that, from the comparison, the larger the mean wind is, the more serious the dynamic wind affect the windage. Therefore, propose a wind forewarning method based on the dynamic wind distribution fitting by g-h distribution and a transmission line windage probability forecasting model base on the method of probability statistics. The results show that, the g-h distribution could well fit the dynamic wind, and the windage probability also has higher precision.Combining the grid meteorological fault probability and the grid operation state, propose and explain a power grid static security risk assessment model based on D5000 system. The model can be regarded as a solution to monitoring and assessing the grid meteorological fault and give advice to the power grid meteorological fault forewarning system construction.